Dear Friend,

You are correct in captioning your letter “Persian Gulf 4.0.” As a reminder, in my lifetime, I have been witness to three Persian Gulf wars and now a fourth one. The first one was the spillover from the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. The hostilities in that conflict spilled into the Persian Gulf, which forced the U.S. President Reagan to reflag third-country ships and escort them in and out of the waterway. You may recall that it was during that period when on July 3, 1988, the U.S. Navy cruiser USS Vincennes shot down the civilian Iran Air Flight 655 over the Persian Gulf, killing all 290 people on board, a mistake that was chalked up to “fog of war” and mistaking the aircraft as F-14 fighter jet! What will the United States chalk up to the slaughter of school children at school in Minab during this war? During that war, Kharg Island was pummeled by the Iraqi air force with the full support of the West, including the United States, and the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (the Arab countries that fringe the Persian Gulf). https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/kharg-island-03/

The Second Persian Gulf War (1991) came about s the result of Iraq occupying Kuwait. The United States garnered the support of the international community and expelled the Iraqi aggressors out o occupied Kuwait, but not before the Iraqis caused a catastrophic environmental damage by the intentional release of 6-8 million barrels of oil into the sea and the burning of over 600 oil wells, creating massive oil lakes, extensive "tarcrete" on land, and severe atmospheric pollution that caused air quality crises as far as Turkey and Asia.

The Third Persian Gulf War (2003) came about as the result of the decision of the United States to invade Iraq and topple Saddam Hussein from power. Approximately 800,000 tons of oil spilled into the Persian Gulf. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_the_Gulf_wars.  

And now here we are in the middle of the Fourth Persian Gulf War, in which the United States has taken out the Iranian military assets on Kharg Island and has announced that she is dispatching a 2,500-man marine detachment and several warships to the theater. One of the ships is said to be an amphibian vessel. https://www.axios.com/2026/03/13/marines-middle-east-us-deployment. You ask what is this deployment about. Well, first this deployment proves that the Pentagon did not think that Iran would impeded navigation in the Stait of Hormuz. If it had presaged that possibility it would have included the unit in the package that it pre-positioned prior to start of hostilities on February 28. Second, the inclusion of an amphibian ship in the announced deployment is either designed for or it is to signal an imminent placement of boots on the ground on Iranian territory.

The news media is fixated on Kharg Island, where the U.S. has degraded Iranian military assets, but has spared the oil storage tanks and other infrastructure. So, most are looking forward to the U.S. landing on Kharg and occupy the island and then hold it as a bargaining chip against Iran, to force it to let the Strait of Hormuz alone. I think that amphibian force could also wrest control of islands at the entrance or close to the Strait that overlook the shipping lanes in and out of the Strait – like Qeshm, Hengam, Tonbs, and Abu Musa. You know that the United Arab Emirates has had a territorial claim over the Tonbs and Abu Musa, as ill-founded as it is.  

You have asked what is the worst case scenario in case the U.S. takes over Kharg. Iran will blow up the entire island and all of its oil storage tanks in a “scorched earth” way: To deny the U.S. the leverage that it would otherwise have; kill a bunch of marines in the process, and have President Trump set up camp at Dover Air Force Base as the body-bags roll in. Meanwhile, the spillage of approximately 18 million barrels of crude oil into the Persian Gulf will make its way to the lower Gulf because  the surface current in the Persian Gulf primarily flows in a counterclockwise (cyclonic) direction, from the Iranian coastline to the lower Gulf. https://www.oc.nps.edu/~paduan/OC4331/projsum/f02/eckardt_persiangulf.html. This cannot bode well for the real estate value of the posh Emirati, Qatari,  and Bahraini beachfront properties, not to say about the fish and the fishermen who ply these waters, and the desalination plants that provide potable water to the population of these countries.

Do you want an even worse scenario? How about damage to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant and the ensuing release of radioactivity in to the air and water?  

The United States Navy’s historic motto and slogan is “Don’t Tread on Me.” Perhaps the caution ought to be added to that noble inscription on the First Navy Jack “Watch Where You Tread."