1. I keep hearing in the media that this US-Israeli war on Iran had caused the worst oil supply disruption in history. NO, this is not the worst thus far. I am old enough to remember and having lived through the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973-1974 and its effect on the U.S. Petroleum was rationed and gas stations sold gasoline to long line of cars whose last digit of the license plate matched the day on which one could buy gas. The long lines waiting for gasoline the long lines at the gas stations based on the odd-even of the last digit on one’s license plates for certain days of the week. The Embargo was led by Saudi Arabia and targeted nations supporting Israel during the Yom Kippur War by cutting production and banning exports. It quadrupled oil prices from under $3 to $11 per barrel causing stagflation in the Western economies. Yes, in those days a barrel of crude oil was cheaper than a barrel of milk! READ all about in https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/oil-embargo.

2. I also keep hearing in the news that the Biden era inflation was the worst in history. NO, it was not. The Biden era inflation peaked at a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022. Contrast that with the rate of inflation during the Carter Administration, which averagedabout 10.375% annually, exceeding 13–14% by 1980. The proof of inflation being worse under Carter than under Biden is that under Biden the Fed raised interest rates between  5.25% and 5.5%, while under Carter the Fed had to raise interest rates to as high as 20%.

3. I keep hearing, here and there, that Saddam Hussein invaded Iran in 1980 in order to seize Iranian oilfields, dismember Iran’s Arab speaking southern provinces, and regain control of the Shatt al-Arab which he partitioned with Iran in 1975. These may have been his war aims after the war began; there is no documented evidence of such a wish-list dated prior to the start of the was As I have explained in https://iroon.com/irtn/blog/21949/on-matters-of-choice-necessity/: The impetus to go to war in the first place was to defend his regime against IRI’s spreading revolutionary zeal. If he had won the war, the achievement of his “war aims” would have been his spoils of war.

4. I heard the other night a commentator say that the U.S. could occupy or strike Khark Island, Iran’s premier export oil terminal. That would not be the first time that a foreign adversary would think of occupying an Iranian island in the Persian Gulf in order to influence Iranian behavior. During the Hostage Crisis, The Economist (November 24, 1979) suggested that the U.S. occupy the Tonbs and Abu Musa Islands as a way to pressure Iran to release the Americans it was holding hostage. Even though that scenario did not come to pass, the seizure of an Iranian island aimed at influencing the behavior of the Iranian government was not without precedent. In consequence of Persian operations against Herat in 1837-38, the British India government occupied Khark island, and refused to evac­uate it until the Persian government had complied with the demands of Great Bri­tain. These islands have been and continue to be Iran’s Achilles’ Heel in the Persian Gulf.

5. I keep hearing that the former Crown Prince of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, welcomes Israeli and U.S. intervention in turning Iran into a secular democratic country. While I am all for secular democracy in Iran, I do not believe that the nearly 60 years of Pahlavi rule in Iran (1921-1979) succeeded in turning a profoundly religious nation into a religiously apathetic nation. The prospect of such a conversion presently is all the more difficult given the last four decades plus of Islamic Shi’a rule and generations that grew up with it. There is something disturbingly problematic with inviting foreign powers to eradicate the IRI regime and replace it with Prince Reza or whomever else. It reminds me of the time during the Iran-Iraq War when the Mojahedin Khalgh openly sided with Saddam Hussein in order to buttress their prospects of gaining political power in Iran once the Ayatollahs were overthrown. Such foreign courtships is in compatible with nationalistic sentiments that most Iranians have about their country and self-determination. This is the reason why they look askance at Reza’s entreaties with countries that are bombing them, just as they rejected the Mojahedin because of their alliance with Saddam.