Cartoon by Bart van Leeuwen

A key question behind Israeli attack on Hezbollah devices: Why now?

By Loveday Morris, Joby Warrick and Shira Rubin

The Washington Post: The complex, multistage attack that caused thousands of Hezbollah pagers and handheld radios to explode across Lebanon over the last two days appears to have been meticulously mapped out.

Israel, which rarely comments on its intelligence operations abroad, has neither claimed nor denied responsibility for the attack, which continued into a second day Wednesday as more devices exploded across Lebanon. The Israelis did not inform the United States about the specifics of the attack before it took place but told Washington afterward through intelligence channels, according to two U.S. officials. Like others in this story, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

Hovering over the unprecedented operation was a critical question: Why now? Israel’s government is in turmoil and Washington has been trying furiously to head off a wider conflict, leaving experts and officials to wonder about the timing of the attack and what it signaled about Israel’s intentions in Lebanon.

The lack of any major military follow-up by Israel in the hours after the first explosions suggests “the timing wasn’t the optimal one,” said Oded Eilam, a former senior Mossad operative who oversaw international counterterrorism operations.

How exactly Israel managed to pull off the operation — and whether it was even over — remained unclear Wednesday. An adviser to Israel’s military intelligence directorate and a former senior commander in Shin Bet, the country’s internal security service, assessed that agents may have taken control of the beeper supply chain, emptied the devices’ contents and filled them with small amounts of explosives. Once that was complete, he told The Washington Post, there would have been limited time to act: “The level of suspicion is high, and it takes only one to explode [unintentionally] for the operation to be burned.”

Other former Israeli intelligence officials echoed that view, saying such operations — months, if not years, in the making — have a brief shelf life after being put in motion. In the case of the exploding pagers, Hezbollah’s decision to switch to what it thought were more secure lower-tech devices after a wave of targeted Israeli assassinations probably provided a window of opportunity, Eilam explained.

“You need the minimum [amount of time] between installation and pushing the button,” he said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant hold a news conference at the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv in October. (Abir Sultan/Pool/Reuters)

Strategic considerations, such as whether the operation is likely to land with maximal impact, need to be balanced against the risk of the operation being compromised, he said, describing the attack as Hezbollah’s “Pearl Harbor.” But it was not immediately evident if the operation was intended as a first salvo in a full-scale conflict or a warning to Hezbollah about the potential costs of such a confrontation.

“We are at the start of a new phase in the war,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told troops Wednesday at the Ramat David air base in Haifa. “The center of gravity is moving northward.”

Hezbollah began launching attacks against Israel on Oct. 8 in support of Hamas and has vowed not to stand down until a cease-fire in Gaza is reached. As ambulances raced again through the streets of Beirut on Wednesday, the militant group promised a “reckoning” for Israel.

Relatives of people injured by the explosions of pagers wait outside a hospital in Beirut on Wednesday. (Hussein Malla/AP)

In neighboring Arab states, already on edge after months of intensifying strikes and counterstrikes along the Israel-Lebanon border, intelligence and security officials were rattled by the latest provocation.

“We were already well up the escalatory ladder,” said one regional official. “This was a big gamble by Israel.”

Arab security services speculated that Hezbollah had discovered a problem with the beepers and that Israel faced a “use it or lose it” moment. Otherwise, the timing of the attack made little sense, several officials said.

“Even if they were trying to send a message, why now?” a second regional security official said. “There will be a reaction from Hezbollah. Why do this if you are truly interested in preventing a wider war?”

A woman carries a Hezbollah flag during a funeral Wednesday in Beirut's southern suburbs for people killed by the explosions of pagers. (Anwar Amro/AFP/Getty Images)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged in a recorded video Wednesday that Israel would “safely return the residents of the north to their homes.” Hezbollah rockets have displaced some 60,000 people from Israeli communities in the north; earlier this week, the country’s security cabinet made their return an official goal of the war.

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi approved “offensive and defensive” plans for the northern border, the military said in a statement Wednesday. Israeli military radio reported that the army’s 98th Division would be transferred from Gaza to the north.

For all of the bellicose rhetoric and troops movements, Israel’s military preparations did not appear sufficiently advanced for all-out war, Eilam said, noting that the United States is putting “a lot of pressure” on Israel not to initiate a regional conflagration.

Yet Washington appears limited in its ability to constrain its closest Middle Eastern ally. White House officials were outraged by Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh in late July, at a pivotal moment in cease-fire and hostage release negotiations. In April, Pentagon officials expressed frustration over not being notified in advance of an Israeli strike that killed two senior Iranian commanders near a diplomatic facility in the Syrian capital of Damascus.

A U.S. official said that Israel informed the Biden administration ahead of the pager explosions that it was preparing to conduct some sort of operation in Lebanon but provided no details. Officials were surprised when they saw the scale of the attack: “We were not aware that hundreds of pagers were going to explode in Lebanon at the same time,” the official said >>>