Emeritus Professor of Accounting Practice, University of Sheffield

The conflict in the Middle East is not just a military crisis. It is rapidly becoming a global economic shock.

With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, vital supplies of oil, gas and industrial inputs are at risk. That means rising energy prices, inflation, supply chain disruption and political instability around the world.

But the deeper issue is political. Wars like this often emerge when leaders under pressure seek external conflict to avoid accountability.

In this video, I explain why this conflict could last far longer than politicians admit, why the economic consequences could be severe, and why the politics driving it matters as much as the missiles.

We also need to ask a deeper question: can politics return to a politics of care rather than fear?

00:00 — War in the Middle East and the global economic shock
00:50 — Why this conflict creates deep uncertainty
01:35 — The widening conflict: US, Israel and Iran
02:20 — Global supply chain risks and the Strait of Hormuz
03:10 — Energy disruption: oil, gas and industrial inputs
04:00 — Why gas price shocks threaten the UK economy
04:45 — Inflation, household bills and economic instability
05:30 — The risk of humanitarian crisis in the Gulf
06:15 — Water, desalination plants and regional survival risks
07:00 — The logistics of modern war: missiles, drones and supply limits
07:45 — Why the outcome of the conflict is unknowable
08:25 — Uncertainty, markets and the inability to price the future
09:10 — The political economy of war and domestic political pressure
10:00 — War as a strategy to avoid accountability
10:40 — Fascism, fear politics and economic consequences
11:20 — Why tolerance and democracy are essential
11:55 — The politics of care versus the politics of destruction
12:20 — Why hope and accountability must guide the future