Another round of talks is scheduled in Geneva, but Ian says Iran is “not willing to engage at all” on their ballistic missile program and refuses Washington’s demand that “none” of its nuclear enrichment be allowed.

With US forces now in place, including a carrier group near Israel, he argues it would be costly and politically difficult to back down. Diplomatic engagement, he suggests, may be little more than “box checking” before strikes begin.

Ian expects any initial action to be limited, and markets appear to believe escalation will be contained. But he cautions there is “always a tail risk,” especially if Iran or its proxies strike US or Israeli targets, which could trigger broader conflict.