Prof James Ker-Lindsay

Is a renewed Baloch insurgency brewing in Iran? In the wake of the 2025 Iran–Israel conflict, Tehran managed to avert regime collapse and territorial loss, yet the war nonetheless exposed deep internal vulnerabilities. Today, as post-war repression intensifies in the Islamic Republic, long-standing grievances among its ethnic minorities are resurfacing, most notably in the southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchestan. Home to Iran’s Sunni Baloch population, the region has long suffered from economic marginalisation, underdevelopment, and heavy militarisation. With rising protests, increased executions, and tighter security measures, fears are growing that simmering discontent could escalate into renewed low-level insurgency, adding to Iran’s internal instability and regional security challenges.

The video examines the historical roots of Iran's Baloch unrest, from the colonial-era divisions of Balochistan to decades of political exclusion under both the Pahlavi monarchy and the Islamic Republic. Also covered are past militant movements such as Jundallah and Jaish al-Adl, and recent signs of greater coordination, including claims of a new Popular Resistance Front. While a full-scale separatist uprising seems unlikely in the short term, persistent repression risks radicalising communities and eroding state legitimacy. Ultimately, Iran’s Baloch region offers a critical case study in how post-war security crackdowns can fuel long-term instability rather than lasting control.

VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:49 Post-Conflict Instability: Iran and the Baloch
01:50 Iran and the Baloch: Location and Population
03:17 The Baloch People in Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan
04:42 The Baloch Insurgency in Iran
07:45 Is Iran Heading Towards a Renewed Baloch Insurgency?
09:36 Is Iran Facing a New Baloch Insurgency?