The roller coaster of negotiations to formulate an acceptable framework for Iran’s nuclear industry has gone through very sharp turns and it seems that negotiations have yielded some positive results. However, despite all the good faith efforts by all parties involved, the outcome of the discussions was less than desirable and the Geneva 2 negotiations came to an end after the objections of Israel and Franc


Iran’s  efforts were to convince the 5+1 that there are no causes for concern about Iran’s nuclear industry. This was coupled with the enthusiasm by the other side that they are finally talking to an authorized and professional counterpart. All this optimism was dashed when French Foreign Minister did not go along with his colleagues and echoed Israeli Prime Minister’s concerns that the give-and-take of these negotiations are less that acceptable. The rest of the Western team went along with the France’s position and without any serious discussion among themselves,  decided to postpone the negotiations. The only sign of irritation was John Kerry’s remarks that U,S is  not a “sucker” This was in response to Netanyahu’s very vocal objection to the negotiations.


Aside from the negotiations, there are some issues that may be as important, if not more. For Iran, it is sitting down with the who-is-who of the world powers. It brings a significant level of prestige to Iran after over 34 years of being on the outside. This aspect of the rapprochements is particularly worrisome to Saudi Arabia and Turkey as well as Israel. The rise in the fortunes of these countries has been as a result of decline of Iran (in its relations with the West). The positive outcome of these negotiations which will result in calming tensions, increasing dialogue, leaving much of Iranian nuclear facilities intact. As well, proximity to and special connection to Afghanistan and Pakistan and influence in the Shiite regions of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are among a few advantages Iran has to offer the West to ensure long term and constructive relations for the years to come.
 

With these advantages also come some serious dilemmas for Iran. Presently, Western Powers are reeling from the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Regional unrests linking directly or indirectly to these conflicts are dragging a reluctant West into conflicts such as Syria and Pakistan. Coming to an agreement with Iran and establishing direct lines of communication with it will provide a good degree of assurance that some of these hot spots will not require the possible intense involvement of the West.¬ However, if Iran fails to fulfill her obligations under a series of agreements and treaties with the West, and the United States in particular, then the collective signatures of the world powers on these documents can and will be interpreted as a sure sign of formation of a coalition against Iran. There is very strong evidence that this coalition can and will protect its interests vis-à-vis these broken promises by Iran. In other words, Iran’s failure to hold its end of the bargain will surely be a strong reason for  5+1, particularly the West, to resort to military force. The direct beneficiaries of such an outcome will be China and Russia who will either participate in such operations to further show their close alliance with the West for future gains, or sit on the sidelines to watch the blood-letting to their advantage. In either case, China and Russia will be trying hard to cash in on this ordeal.

What will be the fate of other regional countries who are crying foul about Iran? They will remain where they are in their relations with the West with a significant difference: As is evident from the ongoing dialogue between the U.S. and its allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel, these countries can no longer be trusted to be reliable allies of the West.