The Organization for World Peace:

By Tom Wilkinson

A war with Iran would not be as simple as ‘Iraq 2.0’. It would be much more devastating. On the eve of war in 2003, Iraq was the 58th largest country in the world by area, and had a population of approximately 25 million people. The nation had an annual GDP of approximately US$20 billion per year; a mere drop in the global economic bucket. The justification for invasion was similar to what the Trump administration today is citing for a war with Iran; concerns over weapons of mass destruction. Most importantly, Iraq lacked any allies who would be willing to assist them in the case of a U.S. invasion. Saddam Hussein’s treatment of Kurdish minorities, as well as the first Gulf War in the early 1990s, had ensured Iraq’s status as an international pariah. The Iraqi military had been decimated following the Gulf War in 1991, and due to sanctions imposed by the United Nations it was later completely outmatched by the military technology of the coalition forces. When war finally came, initial fighting was over within a month. The remainder of time spent in the nation by foreign forces was spent on counterinsurgency and training the new Iraqi military. If there was one positive event that came from this war, it was that the regime of Saddam Hussein was finally toppled, and in its place a new democratic republic was established.

The situation in Iran is incredibly different. The nation itself has a population three to four times greater than that of Iraq, with over 82 million people at the last count. There is also a significantly greater area over which a U.S. or coalition invasion would have to exert control. Iran’s economy reflects its wider influence in the global economy: in 2017, the nation’s GDP was worth 439.5 billion USD. Reuters has reported on multiple occasions that recent events in the Gulf have increased tension between the U.S. and Iran and caused oil prices to rise; an invasion of Iran would likely see these prices spike. War with Iran would not only have a massive impact on the global economy, but could also lead to a huge refugee crisis, further complicated by the fact that Iran’s dominant religious sect is Shia Islam, as opposed to the Sunni Islam of other nations in the region. There have been claims that military action will help accelerate the process of regime change in Iran, whether it be due to domestic strife or to the foreign deposition of the current government. However, if regime change is to occur in Iran, it must come from within.

Go to link