Last Sunday, Trita Parsi showed up on CNN and MSNBC and expressed his displeasure with the upcoming sanctions and the regime change efforts currently underway. But this time he had changed his tune and instead of the usual talk of war and disintegration of Iran, etc., he said the following.
Regime change requires having a new regime ready to step in after the old regime is brought down, and since there’s no alternative in place, then once the current regime collapses, there will be chaos and mayhem, hence Libya and Syria. In other words, let’s either spend the next 40 years trying to find an opposition that we all like, or just go with the garden variety Reformers that the Regime pops up here and there.
The reaction to Trita’s opinion has been more emotional than professional. The folks who are rejecting his “concerns” are saying that since Iranians are suffering everyday therefore some additional pain is a small price to pay. Also, once the people are out on the streets, a leader will emerge and will take charge.
The scientific/professional way to plan and execute a regime change is exactly the same way one runs a large project in the Corporate World in the US. First, you take a large and important undertaking like the regime change that has certain levels of risk and uncertainties, and break it down to a series of small projects. That’s how Pompeo came up with his 12 pre-conditions for talking to the Regime. His intent was not to have a “Carrot and Stick” strategy to negotiate with the Regime but rather to show a path forward to a regime change. Then you pick the ones that have the highest chances of success, the “Low Hanging Fruits” and you plan and execute those. And by then, since the Regime has been weakened and if the Iranians are on the streets, staying on the streets, fighting back against the Regime, and some of the folks with guns joining the people, then you will have many people, including Reza Pahlavi stepping forward and take leadership roles and become part of the transitional government.
When you look at Pompeo’s 12 pre-conditions, 7 are about the Regime’s regional activities, 3 have to do with the nuclear stuff, 1 is about the missile program and the last one is about the Iranian-American hostages. So by going after “Changing the Regime Behavior in the Region” through sanctions, you will be more than halfway through the list.
And every indicator points to “Changing the Regime Behavior in the Region” as the number one priority. The regime change will come in due time.