Reuters:

The United States is likely to extend waivers from sanctions on Iranian oil imports in May but will reduce the number of countries receiving them to placate top buyers China and India and to decrease the chance of higher oil prices, analysts said.

Washington surprised oil markets after granting waivers to eight Iranian oil buyers when the sanctions on oil imports started in November. Benchmark Brent crude futures fell 22 percent that month and the waivers influenced the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) decision to agree in December to supply cuts starting in 2019.

Reducing the number of waivers will limit oil exports from Iran, the fourth-largest producer in OPEC, but the United States is unlikely to meet its earlier target of driving Iranian oil exports to zero.

China, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey are likely to be given waivers after they expire in May that could cap Iran’s crude oil exports at about 1.1 million barrels per day, U.S.-based analysts at Eurasia Group said on Thursday. That would remove Italy, Greece and Taiwan from the current waivers list.

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