Three Benchmarks

 

There is a sense of optimism after Rouhani's election. It is easily understood. When a moderate candidate is elected, under a repressive, medieval regime, everyone should be happy. No one can belittle or disparage the importance of Rouhani's election, but it is necessary to understand what is really behind it. The regime approved only eight candidates to run for the presidency. All of them came from the hard core of the Islamist revolution – clergy or IRGC. Khamenei took no risk. No real opponent of the regime could run. Mr. Rouhani, one of the founders of the Islamic Republic was the most moderate, relative to the other candidates. He was moderate in domestic issues and in his readiness for a dialogue about Iran's nuclear project, as a mean to mitigate the economic sanctions.

        

The Iranian people, in a pragmatic way, chose by default the most moderate candidate. Rouhani took advantage of the people's hatred of the regime. Electing Rouhani was a protest that the regime could not brutally oppress and subdue them as it did in 2009.

        

Today, Rouhani's dilemma is whom will he serve? His reform-minded voters or supreme leader who is determined to preserve the Islamist regime and obtain its ambitions. The ambitions, in case someone forgot them, are global hegemony, turning Iran to an Islamist super-power and dissemination of the revolution wherever a Muslim community exists. A nuclear weapon, long-range missiles, and the export of terrorism, are all means to reach these goals.

        

That is why, Rouhani's policy should be assessed according to three benchmarks: the nuclear project, export of terrorism and domestic oppression.

 

If Iran continues to develop nuclear weapons by Uranium enrichment, production of centrifuges, or in the Plutogenic pathway – nothing has changed. Rouhani is going in his predecessors' way.

 

If Iran continues to arm, finance and guide terrorist organizations like Hamas, Hizbullah and Islamic Jihad – nothing has changed. The most immediate litmus test is Hizbullah activity in Syria.

        

If the Basij thugs keep imposing the Islamist codes of behavior on the Iranian public, if opposition to the regime is silenced – again, nothing has changed.

        

These three benchmarks are essential. All three of them. The Western democracies are eager to see even a mirage of moderation in Iran because it will allow them to back off the sanctions and exempt them of a confrontation with the regime.

        

The world should give Rouhani a chance but in the West, his moderation may be portrayed in a naïve exaggeration. Averse to confrontation, the Western democracies can willingly be cheated and easily surrender to any illusion of moderation. That is exactly what happened during the moderate Khatami's presidency (1997-2005). The European governments stared at him with admiration, and treated Iran softly. In those years Iran enhanced its nuclear deception and perpetrated terror attacks abroad.

        

Israel can't afford toying with illusions. It does not have time to lose. The US administration is committed to preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons. Together with the United States, Israel should soberly and courageously analyze the developments in Iran during the next couple of months. The necessary conclusion must be drawn. Before June our American friends told us "Let us wait until the Presidential elections". Now, we are already there.