But for whom?
There is no shortage of strong opinions on either side of U.S. IRI nuclear deal; mostly from usual suspects. There is no shortage of crooks and scums on either side of this deal either. No good intent will be forthcoming from Israel for sure. That's not how Israel works. The same is true for IRI.
U.S. under Bush or now Bush light, or before either of them could not care less about any specific country in the region outside of protecting the same or similar set of assets and resources in a different formation. Lobby money and typical political prostitution processes are hard at play and the winners are always a small group on either far side.
This deal will certainly establish IRI for good; lack of it however, does not mean war. If war comes it won't be because there was or was not a deal on Nukes. Even if IRI gets nuclear, other key regional countries like Turkey and SA will also get it quickly and neutralize the impact. It’ll be handed to them as it was to Pakistan and India; or Israel for that matter.
People of Iran by overwhelming majority seem to support this deal. Much like they did the devolution. There was not much thinking involved; then or now.
The basic assumption behind it is that economic prosperity will trump other concerns and bring about reform even if slowly. That is the kind of hallucination that brought us 1979 and khomeini and then Rafsanjani and then Khatami/Rouhani and mass killing of Studends and then AN and then Rouhani with record number of executions taking place…with episodes of Mousavi and the other molla as potential future leaders with prison and resistance credibility within this regime….yet the only constant has been IRI inside circle (conservatives and reformists) tightening their control, amassing astronomical wealth, massive inbreeding, and holding on to power at untold cost and consequence to Iran and Iranians.
Binary thinking has been and will continue to be Iran’s demise and Iranians deserve everything they get if they make this mistake yet again. The fact that Israel is so fiercely opposed to this deal is not a reason to be for it. That Bush light and Kerry are so anxious to get this deal is no reason to oppose it. But the fact that IRI is so anxious to make this deal says a lot. This is the key to eternal longevity for IRI.
U.S., Israel, EU, Russia and China will be influencing the outcome still and the situation is dynamic. Can’t underestimate the SA/Israel lobby together. Schumer was tip of the iceberg.
For Iranians what hope is left to change, modify, reform or humanize this regime will be buried with the deal as it stands today. Iran Deal 2.0 with can buy time for Iranian people but judging by euphoria they show, they can’t wait to dig their own graves. As the chinese proverb goes: be careful what you wish for; it just might come true.
Thanks.
Good to see a blog or a link or a video on this site on this matter not sponsored by NIAC, ayatollahs well funded lobby group in DC!!
Dear hamal,
Aipac, NIAC, Nasr, soroush and a slew of others...are no surprise; enigma is Iranians (including diaspora) overwhelmingly support this and that alone is a dangerous sign. Iranians have destroyed the logic of wisdom of crowds in less than 4 decades. Last few times they supported anything in massive numbers we ended up with: devolution, Khomeini, khatami and Rouhani (and record # of execution ongoing as he smiles while saving IRI's ugly existence).
Separately I should reiterate that there are serious lies and horse manure being spread including by Obama administration and that itself indicates motives other than concern for IRI nuclear which has been somewhere between 3 months and 7-10 years away depending on who you listen to and on what time of the day and what season of the year. Remember a few years ago, long before all of this IRI was supposedly months away?
Kerry claims: 'rejecting Iran deal will debase dollar as reserve currency'. I'm growing shakh on my head as I hear this stuff. IRI's econmy is like .5% of the world economy. Euro is barely hanging on and Yuan is having growing pains. How the hell is dollar's supremacy at risk by this deal. If dollar goes away is for a slew of other reason and IRI has to stand in line as #297 http://www.wsj.com/articles/kerrry-says-rejection-of-iran-nuclear-deal-could-hurt-u-s-dollar-1439318697
Dear Shashoo
I also enjoyed reading your interesting blog. But I dont quite share your somehow pessimistic view of future of Iranian people "post deal". It might be because unlike some others I have been fully expecting this deal for at least since Obama refused supporting Iranian people's massive uprising agaisnt the regime post 2008 so called "presidential elections" in Iran. I think existance and stability of Mullahs regime fully serves Strategic US foreign policy goals in the Middle East.
Good post sashoo. I am convinced that 99% of people who are for or against this deal have not even read a page or a line of this agreement, including myself!
Your other observation is correct as well. We are not dealing with nation of logical thinkers, its a nation of emotional thinksers at best and when a logic is not there well you end up with IRI and it's by products.