Global Horizon
Geopolitical Horizon is a weekly NRCI original series released every Wednesday. NRCI´s founder and CEO Arne Elias Corneliussen presents his perspectives on geopolitical, economic, financial and security developments in Africa.
In this program he examines the potential for resumed JCPOA negotiations after Ebrahim Raisi is inducted as new president of Iran tomorrow. Iran said it wants guarantees that all US sanctions will be lifted if they enter a new JCPOA agreement. The US negotiation team´s analysis assumes that the Iranians are so desperate to get a new JCPOA agreement to get some sanctions relief that the Iranians will relent. However is this analysis right? Iran appears more resilient than the US may think, and while US sanctions damaged Iran´s economy, the Iranian economy is stronger and more dynamic than the US seem to realize.
JCPOA negotiations most likely resume in the coming weeks or months. In the event that there is no agreement, risks increase again in the region. However, Iran said that if it is attacked militarily, then Iran will retaliate and there will be a full blown war. Therefore, it remains to be seen which direction this takes going forward.
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