Newsweek:

The United States and Iran appear prepared for an escalation in their common battlefield of Iraq, even as all three nations battle a pandemic that experts say may serve to only inflame tensions.

President Donald Trump warned Wednesday that Iran was planning a "sneak attack on U.S. troops and/or assets in Iraq" and later cited unspecified intelligence he said indicated potential plots by local Tehran-aligned forces there.

"Don't do it," the president warned at a press briefing that evening, threatening that his "response will be bigger" this time after U.S. airstrikes last month targeted Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah positions but also reportedly killed Iraqi troops, police officers and a civilian.

On Thursday, Iranian military chief of staff Major General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri stated his forces were "closely monitoring the activities and moves of Americans," who would face the "fiercest reactions" should they strike. He denied Iran's responsibility for the recent spate of rocket attacks targeting military positions hosting U.S. and allied troops, instead calling them a "natural reaction by the Iraqi people" toward a foreign power who has increasingly acted unilaterally.

Similar sentiments were expressed by an increasingly vocal chorus of influential paramilitary elements seeking to expel a U.S. presence originally tasked with defeating the Islamic State militant group (ISIS). Though the U.S.-led coalition and these Iran-supported militias both battled the jihadi organization they now targeted one another in rounds of deadly violence that has rocked the already conflict-ravaged nation of Iraq.

Now, a new common foe emerged, the novel coronavirus that has swept throughout the Middle East as with nearly every other corner of the world. Instead of this mutual threat bringing adversaries together, Catholic University of America military fellow-in-residence Gil Barndollar called the disease "an extra factor that probably lends itself to escalation and miscalculations."

"In terms of the decisionmaking of the Iranian regime and the Iraqi militias that largely answer to it, you're more likely to see an escalatory cycle by adding another factor to their calculations," Barndollar, who also serves as a senior fellow at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington, told Newsweek on a press call Thursday. He argued Iran was "less apt to back down in face of escalations and provocations by the U.S. as a result of coronavirus."

As the U.S. attempts to antagonize its adversaries with potential further military action, Barndollar warned: "You look at what we're doing directly and it's counterproductive to our interests."

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