Vox:
Jen Kirby
What was your first impression when these anti-government demonstrations erupted?
Ellie Geranmayeh
From May 2017 onwards, Iran has experienced a phase of quite frequent protests across the country, where they can be triggered by small things. From the government budget, as happened in 2017, to much bigger issues that affect millions of ordinary Iranians, like the fuel hikes that we had back in November, to then more devastating, tragic national events like this shooting of a passenger airline.
A lot of people, particularly in November, myself included, predicted that unless there are some systematic reforms in the way the country and the economy is managed, there are going to be quite frequent cycles of protest inside Iran, triggered from anything small to anything big.
These vigils very quickly turned into protests that then — I think even more quickly than the last two big rounds of protest inside the country — turned into slogans that were anti-establishment, targeting Iran’s supreme leader within hours of the protests starting.
Previously, it would take at least a couple days for the more radical slogans to emerge, but now there is no inhibition about going directly to what many inside the country are seeing as the source of the problem, which is the Iranian political establishment at large.
Jen Kirby
And how does that sit with the Iranian regime?
Ellie Geranmayeh
What I think will be more interesting to watch is how the security apparatus responds to the protesters if they do continue over a period of days or weeks. In November, it did culminate in a very brutal crackdown, which was a big shift from the way the state authorities responded to the protests in the country back in 2017 and 2018, where they were largely allowed to continue and allowed to more or less fizzle out.
In November, we saw reports of huge numbers of protesters killed and arrested. This time around, I think there has been some statement [from the top] to Iranian officials that they want a restrained response from the security forces.
What we’re starting to see at the moment is a number of high-profile arrests across the country. Some people have been released, including Robert Macaire, the British ambassador, who was involved in that momentary detention. It’s unclear if others have been or not. So we’ll have to see if security forces respond with a very heavy fist as they did back in November.
Also, I’d put in parentheses that one the biggest shifts we’re seeing in this round of protests following the shooting down of the plane is that an increasing number of supporters of the [regime] are coming out, accepting responsibility, accepting that mistakes were made, accepting that people would be allowed to protest and demonstrate their anger, and accepting that there was a total mismanagement that is unforgivable that has culminated in this event.
Jen Kirby
What might that mean for the political leadership in Iran?
Ellie Geranmayeh
Some have been saying that this is a watershed moment for the political leadership, that this should be a wake-up, that they need to now expand the political space in the country — to basically allow some breathing room for the general public.
All of this is happening as there are parliamentary elections scheduled in Iran next month. And, so far, we’re not seeing great indicators that the leadership in the country is actually expanding that political space, because we’ve had an initial review of candidates that are allowed to run, and several high-profile reformist figures have been disqualified from running.
There is still a space of time when they could appeal and maybe change that decision. But it’s a good indication that some of the more established defenders of the Islamic Republic are not seeing what’s happened as a wake-up call that they need to actually have a national dialogue process, that there needs to be greater involvement of opposing views, rather than restricting the space further.
But we’ll see.
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The people who mourned Soleimani are different from the people who mourned the airline passengers.
No wonder Bernie Sanders said, "Women cannot win." And become president. What is so sexist about telling the truth?
This woman, E.G., like most journalists, has little understanding of the situation in Iran. She has no clue why the rate of inflation is so high and she calls Iran's little Putin, "reformist."
She is one of those so-called analysts working for big good-for-nothing think tanks , trained to think deep thoughts (LOL) and come up with some kinda crappy theory to justify matters; perhaps a prelude to their upcoming books.
Everyone knows there are certain reasons why thing happen in Iran in the way they happen.
She can analyse shmanalyze all she wants.
Majority of ordinary Iranains who mourned the termination of terrorist Ghasem Rambo Salami were not/are not those who took on the streets protesting the IRI regime in general and downing of the Ukrainian passenger plane in particular.
However, there are/were many cultural icons and famous people (e.g., singers, artists, actors, actresses, TV anchors, political analysts, etc.) and also regime operatives who do/did vacillate between mourning/praising Ghasem and mourning the plane victims.
Some prominent figuers include Shajarian, Milani, Zaynab Abotorabi, Abbas Emami, ...., and even some folks on this site (i.e., the prolific ecletic US-Iran score announcer!)
But, this should not be strange about the Iranian psyche. Do you remember all the "marg bar" and "zendeh bad" chants by Iranains against/for Mosadegh, Shah, Khomeini, Khatami, Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, Zarif, Savak, Amrika, Islam, Allah, pedophile Mohammad, etc.etc.!?
It seems to me many (not all) Iranian folks can NOT make up their minds as to what they really want and whom they are for/against!?