War on the Rocks:

By ERIC BREWER AND ARIANE TABATABAI

Iran is back in the nuclear game.

In May 2019, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani announced that his country would no longer be bound by the nuclear limits under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known simply as the Iran nuclear deal. Rouhani’s remarks marked the end of a year-long period in which Iran continued implementing the agreement after Washington withdrew from it in May 2018. Throughout the rest of 2019, Iran gradually reduced its compliance with the deal. Meanwhile, the U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign starved Iran’s economy, helping fuel nationwide protests in November, which left hundreds dead following a crackdown by security forces.

While ramping up its nuclear activities in contravention of the nuclear deal may seem like an attempt to get a bomb, we don’t think that’s the case. The fact that it is gradually and so publicly violating the deal suggests Iran is, instead, trying to put pressure on the international community to relieve sanctions. Nevertheless, its actions beg the question — what are Iran’s goals? Why has it adopted this strategy? And perhaps most importantly — how far does it intend to go?

Iran is expected to continue to push the nuclear envelope in 2020. If it sticks to its stated schedule of taking a step to reduce its compliance with the JCPOA every two months, Iran will have six more opportunities before the November elections in the United States to increase its nuclear activities. For now, it’s unclear exactly what these steps will entail as the Iranian government has kept these measures close to the chest. But Tehran has already crossed key lines in the agreement, suggesting that if it wants to keep up pressure on the United States and Europe, it might need to go even further in 2020.

The timing is important. America’s response to provocative moves by Iran will have political implications for the 2020 presidential elections. These nuclear steps may accompany and complement continued military action in the Middle East in what’s become a two-pronged approach by Tehran aimed at raising the cost of President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign and building leverage vis-à-vis America. These activities have included targeting oil production facilities and shipping in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, and increased aggression by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and in the Arabian peninsula. As we await the first of several potential new steps, it’s important to take stock of what Tehran has done so far to resume nuclear activities restricted or halted by the JCPOA, why it has done so, and to think through what 2020 may bring along.

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