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Ever since Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, and Palestinian cooperation with Hussein during the invasion; Saudi Arabia has abandoned the Palestinian cause and established a regional alliance with Israel. Israel has long had strong relations with Turkey, and Saudi Arabia has sponsored the rise of the Islamic party (Erdogan’s AKP) to governance in Turkey. The three nations, called the “Triad” have thus established a deep strategic alliance. This alliance has long seen Iranian influence in the region as a threat, and engineered the toppling of the Assad regime via ISIS. It seems now, that this Triad has failed miserably to achieve its goals.

In the impending months ahead, there is likely to be a major push to re-take Mosul by Iraqi security forces. Families of key ISIS leadership in the city are already fleeing the city in anticipation of an impending retreat. It’s clear that Mosul will be recaptured – and with it, ISIS will be pushed back to Raqqa, in Syria – its only remaining stronghold.

Raqqa too will be attacked by Syrian forces; and is likely to fall. It’s inevitable.

ISIS therefore, will be reduced to a paramilitary force outside Syria and Iraq. Where will they go? No one is sure, but fingers are pointing to their sponsor governments: Turkey or Saudi Arabia. But in essence they will be outside Iraq and Syria.

The strategy to defeat Assad and push back Iranian ‘influence’ in the region will have been blunted. The “Shiite Crescent” as it is called will have been reinforced. Iranian backed Shiite militias in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon have already been immersed into the military in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and now will have taken over security control – and therefore governance in the region.

ISIS is falling. And, this surely cannot be good news for the Triad: Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Then, as a back-up, Israel and Saudi Arabia have been backing Kurdish forces to ‘break-up’ the Shiite Crescent. This too has become a strategic disaster. In Syria and Iraq, Kurdish forces have been under siege by ISIS forces, and they have become well aware of who has been backing ISIS. Syrian Kurdish towns have been bombarded with the assistance of Turkey, and have turned against the Turks too – in addition to ISIS. There is now a civil war taking place in Turkey between its large Kurdish minority and government forces. We thus have a Kurdish ‘problem’ in Turkey – a member of the triad. A recent coup attempt in Turkey has decimated its military leadership, and has for now rendered Turkey’s military impotent. This war could break Turkey apart.

Iranian Guards have recently clashed with Kurdish forces too; and have become well aware of the Triad’s Kurdish strategy; which in turn has meant further vigilance and control of Kurdish regions inside Iran – but also in Iraq. Iranian guards, for sure, see Kurdish separatism as an existential issue that could drive or inspire further separatism inside Iran with other minorities like the Azeri’s, Arabs, Balochi’s, and Turkmen – which means they will not allow the Kurds much room for maneuverability.

Quite simply, the Kurds do not have much room to maneuver inside the Shiite Crescent.  And the use of the Kurds to undermine the Shiite Crescent has become nothing more than a ‘nuisance’ in the crescent itself – with at least one member of the Triad (Turkey) deeply against the creation of a Kurdish state; and complete disunity among the various Kurdish factions. Iranians, Iraqis and Syrians will not ‘give’ much space for the Kurds too to become a vehicle of destabilization or break-down of their Shiite alliance.

No, the strategy of using the “Kurds” as a tool for the triad is a bankrupt one, and has boomeranged straight back into the Triad’s lap. And, the ISIS support strategy is out. So what’s left for the Triad?

So then this past year, Saudi Arabia tried to bankrupt Iran (and Russia) into submission in Syria. Saudi Oil and Gas were flooded into the market and suddenly both Iran and Russia had severe financial problems. The Saudi’s had somehow calculated that both Russia and Iran would abandon their Syrian adventure when their cash depleted.

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