Cartoon by Shadi Ghanim

Iran Faces Mounting Pressure as Nuclear Deal Hangs in the Balance  

FARAMARZ DAVAR

IranWire: With the fate of Iran’s nuclear agreement hanging in the balance, international attention is turning to a critical deadline looming like a gathering storm on the diplomatic horizon: October 18, 2025.

The date marks not only the tenth anniversary of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) but also a pivotal moment for the international community to decide whether to extend or terminate UN Security Council Resolution 2231 - the backbone of the current nuclear oversight framework.

It will also serve as the last opportunity for world powers to initiate the snapback mechanism, which would reinstate all the sanctions lifted under the JCPOA - except those already expired.

Against this backdrop, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors has taken decisive action by passing a resolution demanding a comprehensive report on Iran’s nuclear activities before March 2025.

The timing is no coincidence - it strategically positions the international community to decide the resolution’s future with months to spare before the crucial October deadline.

The resolution, backed by France, Germany, Britain, and the United States, was approved by 19 board members, while Russia, China, and Burkina Faso voted against it.

Twelve members abstained, and one did not participate in the vote.

This marks the second time in five months that the Board has formally criticized Iran for its lack of cooperation.

The Thursday night resolution specifically calls on Tehran to provide explanations for uranium particles discovered at two previously undeclared locations.

In a joint statement issued after the resolution’s approval, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and the Iranian foreign ministry condemned the move.

They revealed that Iran’s nuclear chief, Mohammad Eslami, has issued orders to launch new and advanced centrifuges - machines that spin rapidly to enrich uranium.

Previously, the IAEA had identified two locations near Tehran - Varamin and Turquzabad - where traces of processed uranium were found, according to IAEA inspectors.

Over the past two days, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi personally conveyed Iran’s objections to IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and several foreign ministers of the Board of Governors member states.

However, these efforts failed to prevent the resolution’s passage, which carries significant and consequential content.

The resolution was issued shortly after Grossi’s recent trip to Iran, during which he met with the Iranian president, foreign minister, and the head of the Atomic Energy Organization in Tehran. Grossi also visited the Natanz and Fordow enrichment facilities in Isfahan and Qom.

In his confidential report to the Board of Governors, a copy of which was obtained by IranWire, Grossi stated that no progress had been made in negotiations with Iran.

He noted that the Islamic Republic had not fulfilled any commitments to clarify the origin of natural uranium found at the two undeclared sites.

Grossi’s role as Director General is to report to the Board of Governors, not to issue or block resolutions.

However, during the Board’s session, Grossi remarked that Iran had promised not to increase its stockpile of 60 per cent enriched uranium if no resolution was adopted.

At a press conference in Tehran, Grossi indirectly dismissed the notion of transactional cooperation, emphasizing that collaboration with the IAEA is not an opportunity for governments to demand concessions for fulfilling their obligations.

Nonetheless, he conveyed Iran’s message to the resolution’s sponsors and Board members.

Reports indicate that the resolution’s backers argued Iran’s promises held no significance given its unfulfilled commitments.

The Board of Governors’ resolution calls on Iran to fully cooperate with the IAEA, adhere to previous resolutions, and provide inspectors with credible technical explanations for ambiguities. It also tasks the Director General with preparing a comprehensive report on Iran’s nuclear program before the Board’s next session in March.

The comprehensive report differs from the regular quarterly updates Grossi provides.

The purpose of regular quarterly reports is to provide updates on the implementation of nuclear agreements and Iran’s adherence to its bilateral safeguards agreements with the IAEA.

The agreements, signed under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), are routine and focus on recent developments, ongoing concerns, new inspections, and potential violations.

In contrast, a comprehensive report is extraordinary and outside the standard schedule. It provides a broader and more detailed assessment of Iran’s nuclear activities to address unresolved long-term issues.

Such reports are prepared at the request of the Board of Governors or the UN Security Council, not as part of the Director General’s standard duties.

The upcoming report is expected to include unresolved issues, an assessment of Iran’s past and current nuclear activities, a review of agreements reached with Grossi, and proposals and recommendations Iran has yet to act upon.

Unlike quarterly reports, it may contain classified appendices for IAEA members.

If the report reveals that Iran is unwilling or unable to fulfill its obligations, the IAEA’s statute requires the matter to be referred to the UN Security Council as a threat to international peace and security.

A similar situation occurred on March 9, 2006, when the Board referred Iran’s case to the Security Council.

That case, handled under Chapter 7, Article 51 of the UN Charter, remains under review. Resolution 2231 suspended these measures, but they could be reinstated if a permanent Security Council member calls for the restoration of the resolution’s provisions before October 18, 2025.

Now, on the 20th anniversary of Iran’s referral to the Security Council, and with 330 days remaining until the fate of Resolution 2231 is decided, Iran faces another comprehensive report that, given its historical context, will likely be unfavorable.

When the report is released, more than two months will have passed since the start of Donald Trump’s new presidential term, placing the Islamic Republic at greater risk of a return to UN Security Council sanctions.