Cartoon by Amjad Rasmi

Coalition building in focus as Iraq declares vote results

Amwaj: Iraq has held its sixth parliamentary elections since the toppling of Ba’ath Party rule in 2003. Despite the Sadrist Movement’s call for a boycott, the 56% turnout is higher than in the 2021 legislative polls, which saw only 43% cast ballots. Notably, the 2025 figures count 21M registered voters, whereas 30M Iraqis are old enough to cast ballots.  

Preliminary results suggest a win for incumbent Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ Al-Sudani’s coalition, with 1.3M ballots nationwide. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has also surpassed expectations, garnering some 1.1M votes—the highest-ever for a Kurdish party. M

eanwhile, Sunni former parliament speaker Mohammed Al-Halbsousi’s Takaddum Front and Hikmah Movement leader Ammar Al-Hakim’s alliance have made advances.

However, no individual list commands enough support to single-handedly govern. Illustrating the fragmentation of the political stage, Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition won the highest number of votes, but that constitutes only 10% of ballots. Moreover, as seats are allocated based on governorate-level performance, there is no direct correlation between seats and nationwide total tallies.

These dynamics compel coalition-building. The norm is for the largest alliance to nominate the prime minister. In 2021, the Sadrist Movement emerged as the largest bloc, but failed in its mission to form a “national majority” government with Sunni Arab groups and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). Such an outcome would have sidelined the parties in the ruling Shiite Coordination Framework, which sought a consensus administration.

Prior to the Nov. 11 elections, some observers speculated that Sudani may consider a gambit that would somewhat echo the Sadrist play in 2021. Such a maneuver would rely on how many seats his coalition has garnered. Moreover, even if Kurdish and Sunni partners agree to join forces, success would likely require the inclusion of some Coordination Framework affiliates.

With the Federal Supreme Court’s ratification of vote results weeks away, and legal challenges likely to emerge, the outcome is far from certain as negotiations over government formation begins.

The turnout: As polls closed on Nov. 11, Sudani took to Twitter/X saying that his government had fulfilled its “obligations to ensure the peaceful transfer of power.”

While observers noted several outbreaks of violence and irregularities at some voting sites, election day overall continued a trend of being largely peaceful.

All in all, 12M Iraqis participated in the elections representing a total turnout of 56%, according to the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC).

Preliminary figures show that 10.9M Iraqis voted on Nov. 11, a turnout of 54.35%. Some 1.1M members of Iraq’s security forces and internally displaced persons (IDPs) cast ballots in early voting on Nov. 9, with respective participation of 72.52% and 77.35%. >>>