I do not have a crystal balll, nor am I good at reading tea leaves.
However, drawing on what one used to do back in the day--diving the political developments in the Soviet Union or China by where people stood in public functions like parades or Communist Party meetings-- I would say that the 10th round of the Iran and 5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom, and United States) nuclear talks scheduled to begin in Muscat, capital of Oman, on November 11, 2014, will be a momentous occasion.
For one thing, the date is also the anniversary of Armistice Day that ended World War I. Second, Musact is where it all began--the US willingness to engage Iran in these--going as far back as the the last months of the Ahmadinehad presidency. One John Kerry flew into Muscat and met in secret with representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The choice of this venue was perfect as Omani government had played the intermediary a few times before between the US, on one hand, and the governments of Iran and Pakistan on separate occasions.
It is, if you'd like, the Algeria of yore where the US diplomats would meet with their Iranian counterparts, or where Iranian diplomats would meet with Iraqi representatives.
Why would this gathering in Muscat signal the fruitful end of the nuclear negotiations?
Well, it would the right place for the two sides to announce an agreement, each recognizing and thanking the good offices of Oman in the cause of peace. After all it would be untoward and impolite--bad form-- to make this gracious host and willing intermediary appear like a pit stop in this laborious process.
So you think that a dealwill be made? I'm not sure. The only way for this deal to work is for the Islamic Republic to put aisde or abandon its "marg bar Amrika" militant ideology. I'm not sure if it's ready to do so.
Nuclear technology is our national right and legal property...........It's there to stay and grow....
Crystal "bowl" did you say Guive?!! - LOL
I suggest first you find a Crystal "Ball" and then let's see what you have got to say.
What can I say -- to err is human, to foreguive divine. Haha!!
There will not be a deal unless the I.R Regime completely accepts what the US has put on the table.
Several months ago, both David Albright and Robert Einhorn put forward the US goal and strategy which John Kerry confirmed at the Aspen Institute a couple of days ago.
Here is what the US position is: I.R. Regime’s nuclear program has to be set back to the point that if the Regime kicks out the inspectors and goes full speed ahead with building of a bomb, the US will have at least 1 year to stop that; first through pressure at the UN, the Congress, etc. and ultimately through a military strike. What that means is No Fordo, Convert Irak to light water, No more than 4,000 centrifuges and no more than a limited amount of 3.5% enriched Uranium, and a complete disclosure of nuclear trigger activities.
The Regime is unlikely to accept these terms. So there won’t be a deal. But what was leaked to NYTimes last week was a 2-yr. extension of “No new sanctions for No new nuclear activities”, or basically freeze everything as they are right now until Obama leaves the office.
Dear Faramarz: A provisional agreement is being touted like you said, however, I am not sure, the Congress will accept that or the mullahs will go for because sanctions will not be removed.
Dear Firedup, you are absolutely right. Obama will have even less control over the Congress once the Republicans take over the Senate with 52 (or 53) Senators in 2015. But historically, the Congress generally yields to the White House on foreign affairs. And this is a temporary agreement and Obama has the option of removing some of the sanctions that the WH itself has instituted.
The good news though is that the Regime's oil revenues which were around $80 billion under Ahmadinejad, and are around $35 billion now will be further reduced to around $26 billion because of the drop in the oil prices.
That means that there is going to be a lot of hungry mullahs in Ghom, as well as unhappy Russians and Venezuelans!
Pendar Ripple_Effect - According to your beloved Islamic Republic (the early version of the IR that is) your opinion in this matter is treason and you're a traitor:
http://iroon.com/irtn/blog/5156/
Looking past the comical slogans of the resident simpleton cyber agent of Islamic regime of Iran, anyone with a few brain cells would tell you this:
Deal or no deal, Ali Khamenei will take the dream of a nuclear armed shia khalifat and destruction of western democracies to his grave.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-7Awe4nkcM
@Anonymous_Observer: furthermore, that piece-of-junk reactor at Bushehr (the only "functioning" part of the inalienable, "indigenous", blah, blah, blah) most certainly is legal RUSSIAN property; that is why the Russkies have been able to milk the mollahs for so many years and for so much of the Iranian peoples' very alienable money for that piece of junk. I can distinctly remember sitting in an Intenet cafe in Esfahan in 2003 or 2004 and reading an article that the Bushehr reactor's becoming operational will be "delayed" till 2005 (LOL). How much electricity has that junk generated?
You are absolutely correct Amir Jaan. After decades of paying tributes to the Russian mafia, this piece of 1950's junk has yet to produce any electricty, which is yet another piece of evidence that peaceful nuclear power is NOT what the IR terrorists are after. I was not aware that it was legal Russian property. Thanks for the info.
Executive agreements do not rquire Senate's approval. Naturally, if things are promised in an executive agremeent whose delivery by the US would require the undoing of what the Congress has put in place then Congressional approval would eb required in the form of a legislative enactment to lift them.
World war II negotiations didn't take this long! I love to know what is being discussed.
Dear MRX;
It's good'ol Iranian "safsateh."
Guive,
Are you saying that G.O.P vote doesn't have any impact on executive order ?