So, what would this “surprise” Israeli retaliation on Iran look like? You know, the one that the Israeli defense minister has said would be also “lethal” and “precise.” Okay, lethal first. That means the retaliation will kill some people or things, whom, what, in what numbers, and where are open to anyone’s guess. Okay, precise second. It means that Israel will hit a defined target not just engage in an indiscriminate spewing of firepower. The nature of that “precise” target too is open to guesswork, in which the element of surprise would be that the aim of the attack is not a location but an objective or end-result.
Here is what I am thinking. Israel would act in a way that the international community’s reliance on Persian Gulf oil will not be interrupted but at the same time the Iranian state would suffer a major loss. So, if the Israelis take out a few Iranian oil platforms in the gulf, as the Americans did many years ago, then the attack would probably be lethal and Iran would suffer a blow but its major oil exporting installations like Khark would remain intact. But since Iran may close the Straits of Hormuz in counter-retaliation, the Israelis may want to ensure that does not happen for the sake of the Europeans who rely on oil exports from the gulf ports. That means an attack on Iran’s military installations at Bandar Abbas and the Tonbs and Abu Musa, and the possibility that Emirati forces could land on these islands and end the long-standing dispute with Iran over them. This means, the gulf emirates would have to shore up their defenses against possible Iranian counter-retaliation against Saudi and other Arab oil installations in the gulf. Preparation for all this takes time.
I do not think that the Israeli attack will be coming from the western skies. While all eyes are fixed on Iran’s western and southwestern skies, a missile fired from an Israeli submarine in the Gulf of Oman would indeed be surprising (i.e. unexpected). Ever wonder why it has taken this long for Israel to retaliate? It takes time for the submarine to make its way undetected from the Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea.
Another possibility is for Israel to cripple Iran’s space-based communications by taking out whatever satellite that Iran has in orbit (if any).
Ultimately, I believe the overall objective of Israel’s retaliation is not the destruction but humiliation of Iran, particularly its leadership. When the leadership loses face (assuming its has any left in this conflict), with its vulnerabilities exposed and its total powerlessness for all to see, Israel hopes, the Iranian populace would rise up and put an end to it, even though the regime for now is not going anywhere; if anything, an Israeli attack, particularly if it is as brutal as in Gaza and Lebanon, will unify the country behind the regime.
Nobody asked, just my opinion.
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