By Shahed Ghoreishi, Business Insider: The Iranian people have regained access to the internet, but their frustrations are far from over.
Tehran's internet shut down cost $1.5 billion and was part of a violent crackdown that cost 200 lives and counting. The protests began in November after the Rouhani administration bungled the implementation of an IMF-recommended reduction in gasoline subsidies by suddenly doubling prices overnight, leading the Iranian people to voice their frustration — not only about the increase in gasoline prices, but over the ever-increasing burden of getting by in the Islamic Republic.
In the midst of all this chaos, the Trump administration actually claimed credit for the events that transpired. Iran hawks say the protests are proof their plan is working. They say Iranians are angry that their government has not capitulated to the US and will force their rulers by pressure or revolution.
In reality, the administration's "maximum pressure" policy is not only making the lives of regular Iranians impossible—it directly undermines US interests and increases the chance of war.
"Maximum pressure" is souring Iranians against the US by causing widespread economic suffering. There is no guarantee this imagined mass protest movement will somehow result in a pro-US government. The more likely path is that Washington continues its dead-end sanctions policy, further frustrating the Iranian people and causing them to understandably lash out and risk more death and suffering, while the government in Tehran uses the opportunity to concentrate its power.
Meanwhile, there is a greater chance that war with the US will break out.
We do not need to guess. We've seen this story before. When the Clinton administration implemented a harsh sanctions policy against Iraq, uprisings in the country were quashed and Saddam Hussein was as strong as ever. This resulted in Washington doubling down with a disastrous war in 2003 under the Bush administration. We do not need to repeat the same mistakes.
Overlooked is the genuine frustration of the Iranian people. They are already living between a rock and a hard place, whether it be corruption and mismanagement in Tehran or the Trump administration's sanctions. Meanwhile, just like with Iraq, there are fringe diaspora groups, whether it be the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq or the monarchists who are strategizing with Iran hawks in Washington.
However, Iran's protests were not organized around any one political outfit with a specific agenda — it was a cornered populace desperately searching for an outlet.
Moreover, the "maximum pressure" agenda is resulting in economic torture and little else. This destabilizes the country, gives oxygen to anti-US views, and giving hardliners more influence in Iran.
The Iranian government is incentivized to increase tensions in response. According to a Reuters report, the Revolutionary Guard held a meeting in order to strategize on how to punish the US for its sanctions on Iran — this meeting resulted in the attacks on Saudi Arabia's Aramco facilities that temporarily cut 5% of the world's oil supply.
If the Trump administration actually cared about supporting the Iranian people, it would return to the nuclear deal, lift sanctions on technology that could prevent Tehran from shutting down the internet again, and lift sanctions that make critical medicine more out of reach for Iranians in need. Iranian's current frustrations are based in socio-economic concerns. They cannot afford food and medicine.
As documented in Venezuela, when you are trying to survive, your priority is not political advancement.
Instead of stepping on Iran's neck, Washington should be facilitating its ability to trade, pursuing academic exchanges, and growing its private sector — away from a closed economy dominated by the Revolutionary Guard. This would lead to healthier and sustainable political improvements led by a strong middle class. Iran gripped by the vice of draconian sanctions and a corrupt government only facilitates cycles of despair, instability, and crackdowns.
Instead of cornering Iran and risking a violent and unpredictable outcome, the US should serve its interests in the region by actively engaging Iran. This would give the US leverage against its small handful of allies in the region, who have their own problematic records (re: Jamal Khashoggi).
The US can even use diplomacy that worked to get the Iran Deal to discuss other issues of mutual concern, including stabilizing Syria and withdrawing from Afghanistan. Regular Iranians could be empowered through academic and business exchanges.
So far, the last thing the Trump administration has done is empower regular Iranians. With a restored internet and the gruesome pictures and videos of the protests already surfacing, the last thing the Trump administration should be doing is reacting with glee and patting itself on the back.
The truth is "maximum pressure" facilitated impossible circumstances for the Iranian people leading them to a deadly breaking point — all while risking another disastrous war in the Middle East. Strangling Iranians is not an accomplishment — avoiding war while bringing about positive results is something Washington would be wise to strive for.
First published in Business Insider. Cartoon by Shadi Ghanim.
Shahed Ghoreishi is a fellow at Defense Priorities. You can follow him on Twitter @shahedghoreishi
“Instead of stepping on Iran's neck, Washington should be facilitating its ability to trade, pursuing academic exchanges, and growing its private sector — away from a closed economy dominated by the Revolutionary Guard. This would lead to healthier and sustainable political improvements led by a strong middle class. Iran gripped by the vice of draconian sanctions and a corrupt government only facilitates cycles of despair, instability, and crackdowns.“ Shahed Ghoreishi, Business Insider
57 Million Below the Poverty Line: Iran Regime Parliament Predicts
By Jubin Katiraie
The Iranian Parliament’s Research Center published a report in which figures for the next 12 months show that between 23 and 40 percent of Iran’s population will soon be living under the absolute poverty line.
This report displays the damage that runaway inflation has caused the Iranian economy over the last couple of years. In fact, the Iranian calendar year, which began March 21st, 2018 and ran through March 20th, 2019, saw the inflation rate reaching 47 percent, and the economy dropping to a negative growth rate.
Last year the rate of absolute poverty only applied to 16 percent of the Iranian population, according to the report. This rate has increased to between 23 and 40 percent, and continues to rise.
According to the study, seven deciles in Iran’s population fell below the absolute poverty line in 2018 and the report recommends that they be helped financially to survive. These vulnerable groups include:
• Those who receive support from the so called Khomeini Relief Foundation and the Iranian Welfare Organization,
• Workers who have lost their jobs,
• Retirees whose pensions places them below the absolute poverty line
• Government employees whose salaries are below the poverty line.
https://www.iranfocus.com/en/life-in-iran/33528-57-million-below-the-poverty-line-iran-regime-parliament-predicts
GR jan
Since Dr. parsi got the Exec VP in that fishtank , i mean thinkthankyou, they need to look around and see if someone can be groomed to fill those big size shoes. Jamal can not handle things by himself. Poor guy he has a night gig too:)))
Hey AR,
These guys have little understanding of basic Economics. Over the decades, by devaluing the Iranian currency, the regime in Tehran has done more damage to the economy than any external pressure. They can't even see the correlation between Iran's weakened currency and the gas prices. They tell you, in dollar terms, the price of gas in Iran is lower than anywhere in the world, forgetting the Iranian currency is rial/tooman and not dollar.
"Overlooked is the genuine frustration of the Iranian people. They are already living between a rock and a hard place, whether it be corruption and mismanagement in Tehran or the Trump administration's sanctions." Shahed Ghoreishi, Business Insider
Shahed in rhe excerpt above draws parallels between corruption and "mismanagement" in Iran and Trump administration’s sanctions ignoring very simple facts that while corruption and "mismanagement" are economic/ financial crimes committed by the regime in large scales, sanctions, on the other hand, are imposed by a perceived and declared "enemy" of Iran, the "Great Satan." It is ludicrous to expect any enemy whom you wish death upon to extend their generosities towards you.
Questions:
How many more decades do the authorities in Tehran need in order to stop "mismanaging" the country's affairs and start managing them properly?
When or, more precisely, in what century will the regime in Tehran start doing something about corruption?
By the way, thanks to the policies of the regime, corruption is rampant countrywide and is not limited to the authorities in Tehran.
Shahed Ghoreishi claims Iran nuke deal was good for average Iranians. He is wrong! Iran nuke deal was bad for average Iranians. It was great for the regime. It legitimized regime's atrocities against Iranians. Here's what happened before the US decided to pull out of the deal:
Tens of thousands of people have protested in Iran. Here’s why.
Why are people protesting?
On Dec. 28, protests broke out in the northern city of Mashhad, spurred at first by concern over the country's stunted economy and the high prices of basic goods like eggs, which saw a 40 percent jump in price. Over the next six days, the protests in more than two dozen towns would turn into an open rebellion against Iran's Islamic leadership itself.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/01/03/tens-of-thousands-of-people-protested-in-iran-this-week-heres-why/
سخنان خامنهای که روز چهارشنبه به مناسبت چهلمین سالگرد تولد بسیج
سخنان خامنهای که روز چهارشنبه به مناسبت چهلمین سالگرد تولد بسیج ایراد شده نشان داد که سرکوب خونبار اعتراضات اخیر، نظامیان و بسیجیها را از درون و برون با این پرسشها روبهرو کرده است. سمبه پر زور در این پرسشها که در اعتراضات گذشته نیز مطرح بودند اما در سرکوب برهنه و گسترده اخیر ابعاد گستردهای پیدا کردهاند، خامنهای را مجبور کرد که در نطق تازهاش به آن پاسخ دهد؛ پاسخ او، هم اعتراف به سرکوب فرودستان است و نه «اشرار» که تا کنون مدعی آن بود و هم رد صریح نظرات خمینی!
او درباره ماهیت حکومت و هویت «بسیج مستضعفین» میگوید: «مستضعفین چه کسانی هستند؟ مستضعفین را بد معنا میکنند؛ مستضعفین را به افراد فرودست یا حالا اخیراً -یعنی این چند سال اخیر باب شده- اقشار آسیبپذیر [معنا میکنند]، یعنی آسیبپذیران؛ نه، قرآن مستضعف را این نمیداند، قرآن میگوید…مستضعفین یعنی ائمّه و پیشوایان بالقوّهی عالَم بشریّت؛ این معنای مستضعفین است: کسانی که وارثان زمین و همهی موجودی زمین خواهند بود؛ بسیج مستضعفین این است. مستضعف یعنی آن کسی که بالقوّه صاحب وراثت عالَم است، بالقوّه خلیفهالله در زمین است، بالقوّه امام و پیشوای عالَم بشریّت است».
بنابر این مستضعف نه آن کوخنشینان که خمینی میگفت؛ بلکه خود خامنهای و همراهان او هستند که «بالقوّه پیشوای کنونی عالم بشریت و خلیفه الله در زمین»اند.
اما این پاسخ به دشواری میتواند سادهلوحترین مخاطبان را هم فریب دهد؛ چرا که نمیشود تا دیروز مدعی بود که کوخنشینان همان فرودستاناند و تهیدستان مصداق مستضعفان؛ اما حالا پس از سرکوب کوخنشینان ناگهان معنا و هویت این اصطلاح ۱۸۰ درجه عوض شود و کاخنشینان جمهوری اسلامی مصداق واقعی مستضعفان شوند!
https://www.radiozamaneh.com/477001
I don't get it if Trump's policy is not working then what is the issue?
if its not working then it means status quo: mullahs in charge, looting and oppresion to continue, regime's benefactors will be around to entertain us with their never ending reformers verses hard liners stories, dopey interviews (good for napping!) with NPR and BBC will go on, phony opposition people and groups poped up by the regime will continue pretending they are in their never ending struggle with IRI and so on. call this Business as usuall cause that is all it is $$$$$$$$$$$$
I think what these guys are afriad off is fact that the policy is working! IRI is out of Syria and Yemmen, places to sign up for volunteers (Modafean haram) closed doors now (No money!), Iraq and Lebonan is in revolts and wants IRI out, regime in stress (hardly any money flowing, from 150 billion a year to peanuts), revolt by the poor (backbone of this regime allegedly), silence by the usual loud mouths from A to Z ( Behnood to Sazgara (feel free to add more if you like)) Status quo under heavy pressure from Trump's policy and IRI associates are begging lefties in U.S to help them!
"I don't get it if Trump's policy is not working then what is the issue?" MRX
The real issue is shitheads like Shahed Ghoreishi, NIAC operatives and all sorts of bitches and sons of bitches do not see any problem with the status quo in Iran.
Shameless Shahed Ghoreishi and NIAC operatives do not even count millions of exiled Iranians as Iranians, anymore.
GR,
I mentioned about N.I.A.C on Majed Naficy blog "The real Deal Behind the US-Iran prisoner swap", but he deleted my comment and blocked me off his blog. It is funny to see these kind of people always talk about "democracy" ,but they have no clue of democracy whatsoever. They don't have problem with dictatorship as long as dictatorship says the same thing they're saying. Once dictatorship says something different, then they start whinning about democracy...
Anyway, I mentined that Trita Parsi and members of N.I.A.C ,who are on payrol by criminal mullahs , should be arrested and detain in jail. Then the next step will be prisoner swap. U.S can ask for those American who detained in Iran for prisoner swap. They can swap Trita Parsi and other N.I.A.C members with Americans who were detained in Iran. One American disappeared 12 years ago in Iran.
In this way, we get rid of Mullahs' lobby in Washington D.C and at the same time Americans, such as the one who disappeared 12 years ago, can come back home free.
Siavash,
To each his/her own. As for democracy, I can only say it's an attractive idea.
DEMOCRACY means TOLERANCE. Tolerance of other peoples's OPINION. Tolerance of other peoples' RACE.Tolerance of other people's FAITH or RELIGION.... ........
Over the years I found out that Iranians in general have ZERO TOLERANCE for other peoples' opinion. It is funny the same people always speak of DEMOCRACY.
In South of Holland (Netherlands) there is a city by the name of Hillversome. In the downtown area of this Hillversom there is a big sign says :TOLERANCE. Upon my arrival in that town, I didn't know the reason of displaying of the sign. Later on, I found out that about 6,000,000 jews lost their lives in Holland as a result of Holocaust. They lost their lives because Germans couldn't TOLERATE their "RACE". Then I realized what the establishment was trying to say by public display of TOLERANCE. This is how Europe reach to democracy. The question is :
Are we Iranians have "tolerance" of each other opinion ? I personally doubt it.