By Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, Bourse and Bazaar:The news that Trump has fired John Bolton—though the former national security advisor insists he resigned—will be well received in Tehran. Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif had taken to branding Bolton as a member of the “B-Team”—alongside Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia’s Mohammad bin Salman, and the UAE’s Mohammad bin Zayed—as a group that had been gunning for war in the Middle East. Iranian officials saw Bolton as a spoiler for diplomacy, a perception borne out by reporting on his role shaping and sharpening the Trump administration’s Iran policy over the last year.
Bolton’s ouster represents a real opportunity for the Trump administration to walk back from maximum pressure as more pragmatic officials outside the NSC find the space to assert their views once more. Despite the active roles played by the State Department’s Iran envoy, Brian Hook, and the Treasury Department’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, Sigal Mandelker, in pushing forward the administration’s uncompromising messaging on Iran, the maximum pressure policy developed because Bolton was able to leverage his unique access to the president. Over the last year, Bolton repeatedly used this access to push the administration’s policy towards the extreme.
In March, Bolton and Pompeo were at loggerheads as to whether the Trump administration should revoke waivers permitting eight countries to continue to purchase Iranian oil on the condition that revenues were paid into tightly controlled escrow accounts. Bolton eventually prevailed. The revocation of the oil waivers in May led to insecurity in the Persian Gulf as Iran threatened the passage of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the restrictions on their oil exports.
In April, the Trump administration designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), part of Iran’s armed forces, a “Foreign Terrorist Organization,” in a move that had been debated by administration officials since late 2017, when the U.S. imposed a similar if less severe designation on the IRGC. Once again, Bolton was the key voice in favor of the move, despite the warnings of military and intelligence leaders that such a designation could make American troops in Iraq and Syria targets for retaliation.
In July, Bolton’s NSC advocated the revocation of the waivers which permit civil nuclear cooperation projects critical for the implementation of the JPCOA. European officials feared that the revocation of the waivers would effectively kill the nuclear deal. Trump eventually sided with Treasury Sectretary Steve Mnuchin who argued in favor of renewal, allowing the JCPOA to limp along.
Later that month, the Trump administration took the unprecedented step of sanctioning Zarif, despite reports earlier in the month that objections from Mnuchin and Pompeo had staved the move, strongly advocated by Bolton, to designate Iran’s foreign minister. The eventual designation caused an outcry in Iran, uniting figures across the political spectrum in condemnation of the U.S..
At each step Bolton doggedly pursued maximum pressure, pushing aside the concerns expressed the secretary of state, secretary of treasury, military leaders and intelligence officials alike. While Trump’s antagonism towards the Iran nuclear deal predates his appointment of Bolton, the transformation of the Trump administration’s Iran policy into one of “economic war” was nonetheless dependent on Bolton’s ideological fixations and mastery of the interagency process, qualities of which he has bragged.
Earlier this summer, several U.S. officials relayed to me their concern that the Trump administration’s Iran policy increasingly consisted of steps that created political costs for the United States—straining relationships with allies in Europe while deepening rifts with adversaries like China—while adding little meaningful economic pressure on Iran. The departure of Bolton may come as a relief to many of the career officials in the State and Treasury Departments who felt a growing incoherence—and their own irrelevance—in the administration’s policy.
It is certainly possible that President Trump will name another hawk to the role—there is no shortage of national security professionals in Washington wary of Iranian power—but it is highly unlikely that the replacement will have such a strong fixation on maximum pressure for its own sake. It is also unlikely that the new national security advisor will be as effective as John Bolton in working the bureaucratic machine of the White House.
In the hours following Bolton’s departure, Mnuchin insisted that the administration will maintain its maximum pressure campaign on Iran. But the need for that insistence is itself reflective of the opportunity now presented for the administration to slowly rollback aspects of its maximum pressure campaign and for Iran to offer the Trump administration a credible path to de-escalation.
With Bolton out, the prospects of direct talks between the US and Iran on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly later this month have certainly improved—Trump repeated his interest in meeting Iranian president Hassan Rouhani the same day he fired Bolton. But even if that remains a bridge too far for the Rouhani administration, who may consider it too risky to negotiate Trump in a moment of flux, there are more practical gains to be had. The simple restoration of the oil waivers, perhaps in accordance with the proposal advanced by French president Emmanuel Macron, could see Iran cease the resumption of uranium enrichment activities as part of its reduced compliance with the JCPOA.
Iran’s political predicament and economic pains are not John Bolton’s fault. But Bolton consistently pushed U.S. policy in directions that were perceived by Iranians as “war by other means.” Over the last few months, Iran has responded in kind. Bolton’s departure therefore is a useful reminder that while conflict may have structural roots—it is only as inevitable as the selection of a warmonger as national security advisor.
First published in Bourse and Bazaar. Cartoon by Monte Wolverton.
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj is Founder and Publisher of Bourse & Bazaar.
John Bolton's exit isn't a victory for our adversaries
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/460732-john-boltons-exist-isnt-a-victory-for-our-adversaries
Iran did not escalate to seize opportunity to de-escalate but it is an opportunity to tRump to realize his mistake and make coarse correction.
Our politicians had resisted pissing on the office of Presidency, tRump fixed that.
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
One thing America has no shortage of is the number of folks who genuinely want an end to the IRI regime be it via sanctions or MOABs or a hybrid approach! John Bolton is one of the zillions of these folks, so before opening up your bottles of dooghs in celebration of his departure just remember this - javad Zarif and Ali Khaye-many must go!
One thing that the American politicians need to admit and understand is that self-determination is the right of every person and nation and regimes ought to be changed only by the inhabitant of those nations. Iran has no right to dictate to other nations as what regime ought to rule them and this applies equally to the US, the era of colonization is long gone.
War mongering only invites and results in violence and one cannot complain and bitch when they have invited violence upon their own people.
Our politicians had resisted pissing on the office of Presidency, tRump fixed that.
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
Eenghadar zig zag nazan doktor - answer this vital question! inspector_clouseau_watson| 2 hours ago تو مستراح نشستی داری میرینی خیر سر جواد ظریف, رو آفتابه نوشته ۷۲۹, از آفتابه استفاده میکنی یا نه!?
There might be a degree of relief for the Iranian regime, but not full relief.
Israel still has Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Trump administration is on vry good terms with Israel — Netanyahu in particular — as well as Saudi Arabia, both of which want Iran’s aggressive governing regime to be weakened, if not destroyed.
The pressure on Iran remains formidable, especially when it comes to economic sanctions. The Hill
MBS is a very smart fellow. Trump will be re-elected.
Bolton’s “Libyan model” comments on North Korea were a setback: Trump
Trump says he doesn't "blame" Kim Jong Un for not wanting to deal with Bolton
khandaniha team jan
I hear your boss toyota parsi is so happy of this news that he has forgotten about moharam and has put his arab wife up for rent at $10 a go (oral) in Gaza strip!!
هفصد و بیست و نوه جان, با رفتن بالتون شنیدم علی خامنه ای در حال سقط شدنه!
Ben jan,
Since you are in touch with him or follow him, give him my regards. He did a great job countering the MEK terrorist group and for that he gets my salute and appreciation
Our politicians had resisted pissing on the office of Presidency, tRump fixed that.
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
So one dude with greasy mustache was the obstacle for the glorious Islamic republic to de-escalate, good to know!
MRX,
In journalism, this is called sensationalism. Trump was talking about withdrawing from JCPOA long before John Bolton joined his administration.
The same media that blames Bolton for Trump’s “maximum pressure” used to claim Trump’s reasons for withdrawal from the JCPOA was his dislike for Obama. The same was said about Obamacare, climate change and whatever Trump did. Now, read the following:
“John Bolton was the 27th National Security Advisor of the United States from April 9, 2018 to September 10, 2019.” Wikipedia
The US withdrew from the JCPOA on May 8, 2018. Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the JCPOA in 2017. That’s when he became president. Now, Read the following:
“According to the JCPOA, every 90 days the President of the United States would certify, among other things, that Iran was adhering to the terms of the agreement.” Wikipedia
While asking the regime in Tehran to come to the negotiating table, Trump did certify until May 8, 2018. That is more than a year. And the politicians in Tehran kept making fun of Trump. But in March of 2o18 the Iranians, in anticipation of the US withdrawing from the deal, devaluated Iran’s currency. So, Iranians must have believed Trump would not certify Iran’s adherence to terms of the deal.
So, with or without John Bolton or Trump’s dislike for Obama and Obama’s policies as president, Trump would have done what is being done to Iran. And now that, thanks to the sanctions, Iran’s economy is in its worst shape since 1978 and the regime fears more mass protests, John Bolton’s firing/resignation becomes a good excuse for the clowns in Tehran to blame the US’s hawks for their own warmongering and failed policies.
تنها راه رهایی ایران از این مخمصه فقط و فقط استخدام یک عده دهاتی خارج نشینه که ۲۴/۷به ترامپ نفرین کنن.
“Trump Flirts With $15 Billion Bailout for Iran, Sources Say” Daily Beast
Hallelujah!
To the staunch supporters of the regime in Tehran:
Money is on its way. Soon you won’t be needing food stamps. So, start praying for Trump’s success.
One more vacancy at the White House, looks like
علی موند و حوضش
Our politicians had resisted pissing on the office of Presidency, tRump fixed that.
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
“Iran’s political predicament and economic pains are not John Bolton’s fault.” E.B.
Precisely. The ruling theocrats and their lackeys are not capable of ruling a country the size of Iran. They should all move to Karbala and live there happily ever after.
Capital Flight - $59 Billion Has Left Iran In Past Two Years
More than $59 billion in hard currency has left Iran during last two years, Islamic Parliament Research Center (IPRC) has disclosed.
According to IPRC, following the United States withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Tehran’s nuclear deal with world power, more billions are expected to leave Iran in the coming months.
IRPC has also said that $59 billion is a significant figure in Iran’s financial situation, a website close to the speaker of parliament, Khabar Online reported on Monday, May 28.
The capital that left Iran during past twelve months amounts to $39,200 billion which is equal to 83% of Iran’s current annual income from its non-oil exports.
https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-capital-flight-momentum/29261821.html