I was planning on filling in the survey, and then I thought this really isn't a simple question and deserves a more elaborate response.

 

So here is my little rub on this. It is very clear that the sanctioning program over Iran's nuclear program is a diversion tactic by the West. The real goal is to sanction Iran and keep the 'mullahs' contained and the nuclear issue is the 'mechanism' for doing that. On the fact of it, there are NO logical grounds for there to even be a negotiation.

First of all Iran (the country of Iran) is an investor in Eurodif. This is Europe's uranium enrichment organization. Yes, Iran is a 10% investor, paid over 1 Bn dollars for its share and has a board seat in the company that enriches Uranium for Europe's (but primarily France's)Nuclear reactors. If Iran was NOT supposed to enrich Uranium then why would it be offeredI a seat on the largest enrichment company in the world? Okay, so that happened while the Shah was in Power...but so what?  This was Iran's soverign cash - not the Shah's money. And anyone in power in Iran (like the Mullahs that flew into Iran on an Air France Boeing 747) have inherited the same rights. Now I do not support the Mullahs, but the point is, the sanctioning is illogical.

Secondly, they say Iran violated the terms of the NPT, therefore it can not be trusted to run an enrichment program. This again is bullshit. If a violation at anytime in the past is a criteria for having the right to enrich uranium, then lets look at the U.S, or even South Africa..or even Israel. US routinely provides nuclear war head missiles to no-npt signatories - its the largest proiferator. Israel sold weapons grade uranium to South Africa...and has NEVER been sanctioned. Its patently an excuse.

I could go on and on about the fact that the West doesn't have a leg to stand on on this issue - but the reality is that sanctioning Iran provides some insulation, some containment of Iran ....while Western Oil companies siphon off Iran's oil and gas out of the Caspian Sea - and in effect has made Iran impotent, and unable to exert its legitimate rights. THe mullahs can't exert Iran's rights on the Nuclear issue, let alone Iran's territorial rights in the Caspian Sea. The whole idea is to simply contain the mullahs - while the West figures out what to do.

There are no easy options here. A campaign like Iraq is out of the question now. A civil war like the one in Syria may be in the cards - but even the Syrian campaign (designed also to isolate Iran) has been a disaster with over 70,000 deaths and over 1 million refugees in Turkey and Jordan, and over 2 million displaced Syrians - with no end in sight.

So the question is who has won this game of nuclear negotiations - and so far the objective has been to isolate and contain Iran with sanctions, use the nuclear issue as an excuse - and if anything Iran has been embolded by the West. Iran now dominates Iraqi politics. Iran is now a critical force in supporting the Assad regime, which if it does NOT collapse, will mean Iran will be even more influential in Syria. This whole effort to isolate and contain Iran has backfired so far. But the game is NOT over.

And as for containing Iran so that the West can steal Iranian oil and gas from the Caspian sea, well so far the West has in fact succeeded. Although production this year in Azerbaijan by BP was well below targets. Azeris can see a blood thirsty dictator in place with the Aliev regime, and in the long-run will hold the Brits and their partners responsible. My point is the situation in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are fundamentally not sustainable. With or without Iran's containment, the poltiical situation in those countries (as well as Bahrain etc.) are NOT sustainable. Focusing on Iran and sanctioning Iran - will NOT by itself guarantee a free ride in the Caspian for the West.

In the end, every action being taken by the west which is NOT in support of freedom and democracy in the region will back fire. Just like in physics - every action has an equal and opposite reaction! Using the nuclear issue as a pretext for containment and isolation has only made the west seem disengenuous with serious loss of credibility not just arround the negotiating table - but with Iranian opposition forces and the people of the whole region. The West should NOT assume  that people in the region do NOT know the basic facts.

This in the end makes the West seem idiotic, stupid and untrusthworthy. In the end, just like in Iraq - the U.S. will find itself being asked politely to leave. Because no one can trust being partnered with them. This by the way doesn't mean that the people in the region will look to the East or Russia - but strangely a new nationalism, a new independence, a new can do sense is evolving in Iran and in the region ...that says we will fix our domestic situation ourselves. For me right now, I look to the secular opposition in Egypt as a model of how they are taking on CIA's Morsi (Islamic stooge) and forcing a completely new independent agenda.

So again who is winning or losing ...the West has already lost the argument. THey dont have a leg to stand on, and the Mullahs will eventually lose their argument - because the people of Iran are finding a new found self-confidene that in the long run will result in the demise of the Mullahs too.

They have both lost it. And in time the people of Iran will win....

In country with a top 20 level of Uranium deposits, in a region that is basically number one globally with Uranium deposits (if you include Tajikestan and Kazakhstan) - it simply doesn't make sense to send the Uranium to Europe or Russia to be sold at inflated values back to Iran for power stations. The people of Iran know better.

 

If the mullahs agree to such a deal they will be thrown out for the british stooges that they are; and if the west forces such a deal on Iranians they will never ever be able to step in the region again. And with such an exit, and no U.S. troops nearby, bottom line, Israel's security will be challenged. The west has simply picked the wrong tactical issue to pick a tactical fight. The more the west pushes - the sillier they look. And the Mullahs are using this issue for their own benefit too...dragging it out ...making them seem NOT like the puppets that they are. Meanwhile the facts keep filtering out...filtering out...filtering out....The West looks increasingly stupid, Israel looks increasingly stupid, the Mullahs look increasingly stupid...And in the end the people of Iran will survive and win...not the Mullahs, not the West. I am sure of this.