I wasn’t around in 1979, but from all the video footage and photos that I have seen, books and articles that I have read, and the stories I’ve heard, it looks like the majority of the Iranian population had turned into a violent lynch mob that was hellbent on deposing a weak, secular, patriotic Middle Eastern monarch and replacing him with a violent, anti-Iranian, vengeful, illiterate cleric whose image they have collectively seen on the moon--at any cost. Iranians had all turned into living reincarnations of Che Guevara. Some had even apparently dressed like him and donned the barrette. Some more “sophisticated” ones even trained in Palestinian and South Lebanese terrorist camps in Lebanon and Libya—getting ready to gun down innocent Iranian conscripts on the streets of Tehran, Shiraz, and Isfahan. Some got training and weapons from Russia. The organizers of the uprisings even brought professional Palestinian terrorist to Iran to shoot soldiers and police. Shah had to go at all costs. They burnt buildings, attacked army barracks, and had a mass execution machine set up immediately that continued its barbaric work for years.
Now, fast forward 40 years. A brutal, unforgiving, murderous theocracy rules Iran. Unlike the time of Shah, where a robust, logistically sound, yet unofficial, political opposition thrived—with almost all the leaders of opposition parties residing freely inside Iran and continuing their activities—all opposition to the Islamic Republic has been decapitated. So, what’s the resolution offered by the Che Guevara wannabes of 40 years ago? Civil disobedience, ala Gandhi and Martin Luther King! Yeah…that should get rid of a theocracy that doesn’t hesitate for a minute to put a bullet in your head in response to the smallest level of opposition. At first I thought they were just stupid for saying that nonsense. After all, in case of Gandhi, we had a giant country colonized by a foreign nation roughly 1/20 of its size with even a bigger population ratio. MLK, of course, resisted in a democratic system with an independent judiciary, which is what ultimately got rid of most of discriminatory laws. Oh, they also mention Mandela, which again is not comparable to Iran because in that case there was a minority racist population trying to rule over a majority of the population. But now I realize that these folks aren’t stupid. There are other factors at work.
First, a lot of these guys are leftovers of the “revolution” days. Back then they were young and energetic. Now, they’re old, fat, and tired with a big chelo kabab belly. They just want to relax. “ki hal dareh baba?” Also, a lot of them own property in Iran, and enjoy their trips there, where they partake in a little “taryak,” whiskey, and a prostitute / sigheh here and there. So, they’re comfy. Why rock the boat? Revolutions are messy. They’re also cowards and chikenshits. They know that Shah wasn’t a murderer, so they felt safe in violently challenging him. But they know that this regime won’t think twice about cutting your head off—ISIS style. So, they cower before it and are very “lateef” toward it! Lastly, the revolution for these losers was perhaps the most significant event of their otherwise unremarkable lives. So, they don’t want to let go of the memories of the good old days.
Now, some may ask why is this important? These guys are old anyway. The answer to that is unfortunately—and mainly due to the effectiveness of IR’s annihilation of political opposition—these fossils still control much of the political discourse on Iran. After all, a lot of these guys immediately escaped the revolutionary paradise that they had created and came the West, where they became college professors and political pundits. Just look as the Farsi language international outlets and see who opines there as “Iran experts.” It’s the same characters. And what’s worse is that they instill the same BS in the minds of their children and grandchildren, almost all of whom have never lived in Iran, and who only see a sanitized version of the IR. So, the cycle continues.
Uprisings take sacrifice. It can’t be done on the cheap. One also cannot play chess with a gorilla. This whole “civil disobedience” thing as a method of opposition to the IR is a sham and a ruse to keep the status quo. People who advocate it know that too. They’re just lying.
Gandhis in 1979, Che Guevaras in 2018 :)
Sorry sorry guys! Gaavs in 1979 Goosfands in 2018! Only lord knows what in 2118!?
Na...you got it backwards. :-) Iranians today are all about "peaceful disobedience." Hey, it's much easier. You really don't have to "do" anything.
Look at it this way: the biggest symbol of protest today is for women to take their compulsory headscarves off for a few minutes and take a photo with it. In 1979 a symbol of protest was shooting a soldier on the street, or burning down a government building, or attacking a military base. Big difference.
You have brought up many points:
1) First of all majority of people in Iran did not turn into violent mob, majority was a passive observer. Biggest demonstrations in 1979, were couple of days during releigeous month with numbers reaching to 200K at the most give and take. (Don't believe numbers in millions and so on!)
2) your perspective on the geriatrics promoting dialogue now and in 79 promoting guerrilla war fare is correct but here are the two reasons for it:
There really is only one clean way out of this, a coup from younger member of rev guard/army replacing the old guard and returning thing back to normal like 1979. Even Henry Kissinger said it " Iran can no longer afford another revolution".
Lovers in the kitchen and chefs in the bedroom!
Revolutionaries when reform was the proper path and reformers when regime-changing revolution may be the only path.
p.s. The Gandhi's on the streets of Iran are young, not fat and want to live to see the fruits of their sacrifices.
The fat ones are the west-residing lefties who are now 40 years older.
MRX - I think that if there's an uprising in Iran, the entity that will turn Iran into pieces will be the Islamic Republic, not the geriatric MKO members. The IR will implement a scorched earth policy, will pour not only its own Basij and paasdars into the streets of Iran with machine guns, but also tens of thousands of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi militia, Afghan militia, and Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Why do you think it has been pouring billions of dollars into those places for the past 40 years? The playbook will be that of Syria. An internal coup will be nice, but I don't think it will happen. The future is grim--as I have always said. These protests are nothing and will not get anywhere. These "resistance" stuff is nice, but it's playing chess with a gorilla. They won't go anywhere. Neither will "my stealthy freedom" on Facebook! The IR will eventually come to an end. It may be a long time from now, but it will happen. But when it does, its end will coincide with the end of Iran as we know it.
Faramarz- you are correct here: "Revolutionaries when reform was the proper path and reformers when regime-changing revolution may be the only path." That's precisely my point. Sadly, under the Shah Iran had the best chance of a non-violent reform into a constitutional monarchy. Hell, Shah had essentially created a de facto democratic system anyway. All the leaders of the revolution (with the exception of Khomeini himself) were inside Iran--and completely free--way before the first protests, with active fundraising, logestlical operations, etc. Can you imagine that happening now?
And yes, I was talking about the West residing revolutionaries in their late 50s and 60s.
I wonder what happened to the Che Guevara wannabes in that pickup truck--especially that f***ing loser with the gas mask on his face? He's probably the minister of defense now.
Dear AO: I wish I could disagree but you're righton so many points. The only way out of this mess is sanctions a la pre JCOPA where the regime becomes financially so weak that it can't pay the basiji and other mercenaries. Investors are already shakey and are backing out because of Trump's threat of nixing the JCOPA.
The middle class also needs to be feel the financial pinch before they join the urprising. By 2025, the current oil revenues are not sustainable without major investment in Iran's antiquated oil infrastructures and the water crisis are bound to get much worse with the globe getting hotter and hotter each year. It might take 10 years before we reach a critical mass. All is not hopeless.
Follow Iran protests across Iran:
https://twitter.com/IranStreetRep
Dear Firedup - Thanks. I have another suggestion: for there to be real change inside Iran, Trump needs to ban travel to Iran. I'm planning on doing a blog on it at some point. The ex-pat Iranian community is large and influential. And nothing will enrage them more than an inability to travel to Iran. That would get them moving. I think they will go nuts if their travel to Iran is interrupted. That's what needs to be done.
Dear Firedup,
Sanctions never bring dictatorial regimes down. They will always find a way to sell enough oil to stay in power. Look at N. Korea, the Exhibit A of how sanctions don't work.
The Obama sanctions worked because it was a part of the "Carrot and Stick" strategy that the Europeans, and more importantly the 4 Asian countries, India, China, Japan and S. Korea agreed to support to reach a peaceful resolution of the nuclear problem.
If the US starts talking about a "regime-change" in Iran thru back-breaking sanctions, the Europeans, the Asians, China and Russia will not cooperate.
Remember, even ISIS, a terrorist organization was selling oil thru Erdoğan. And during Obama's sanctions, an Israeli businessman bought a tanker full of Iranian oil in the high seas.
There's no such thing as an "airtight sanction", unless you are willing to occupy the Iranian ports and oil fields. I don't see it.
dear Faramarz: I disagree. European companies and even Indian companies are already backing out of investing in Iran due to finding out that their investment is linked to IRGC.
The oil is declining by year 2025 (read the report below). The oil prices are probably going to go down in the next 10 years because of renewable energy. The corruption is chewing up the foundation of the regime like termites. Water bankruptcy, air pollution, agricutural and food scarcity are going to rise. Iran is already admitting they don't have the brain power to fix these types of problems according to Mostafa Tajerzadeh.
"While Iran could compensate for that decline by tapping into its undeveloped oil reserves, it will be hard to maintain the same level of oil export profit after around 2025 without using and investing in new technologies for oil extraction, according to the report. On the other hand, implementation of new technologies would take a long time to pass through the bureaucratic process in Iran.
“If Iran wants to keep its current production level or further increase it, the country’s officials have to start investing in the new technology to help get to hard-to-get oil 10 years from now,” Azadi said."
via: https://news.stanford.edu/2017/01/01/new-stanford-project-will-study-development-irans-economy/#
Dear Faramaz: You can also argue without the sanctions and full implementation of Rouhani's neoliberal policies will further wident the gap between have the have nots. Poverty under Rouhani increased by 14%. More than 33% live below relative poverty level and more than 75% of the work force is made up temporary workers. Maybe you are right, we don't need sanctions. Once the inequality reaches a certain point, then the working class who were once middle class will take the matters in their own hands.
Dear AO: Eurika! Problem solved. Look forward to reading your blog.
Reading through the blog and comments it ibecomes clear that no one believes that iranians are up to the task of overthrowing the mollahas by themselves. which means some foreign power needs to do it for them. through sanctions or military attack.
which one would iranians prefer? sanctions or military attack.
به نظر شما مردم ایران از چه راه هایی میتونن اقتصاد جمهوری اسلامی رو متلاشی کنند؟
https://twitter.com/PesarNoah/status/961215314791927808
نماینده مجلس: پول خرید هواپیماهای بوئینگ و ایرباس را نداریم
https://www.radiofarda.com/a/iran-money-shortage-boeing-airbus/29025367.html
It was easy to be Che in 79. Shah was not going to kill masses to stay in power. A decade of brainwashing in mosques that Shah allowed to spread, helped shape armies of thugs. Meanwhile, the "roshan fekr" were getting brainwashed in Hoseiniyeh Ershad with unadulterated bullshit by likes of French and British trained slimeball molla zadeh ali shariati.
With slimic regime, people have no choice but be Gandhis. This regime has been practicing mass killings in Iraq and Syria because it knows it'll do the same in Iran; sooner or later. This is the face of Erteja'.
AO, dude do you still check your gmail?
Hey man. That one I haven't checked in a while! I think I can still access it though. Did you send me something? I'll check it out later.