The Washington Post:

David Ignatius writes a twice-a-week foreign affairs column.

Here’s the most intriguing fact about Iran’s apparent seizure on Saturday of a small oil tanker about 240 miles northwest of here: Thus far, it has brought only a muted response from the United Arab Emirates, in whose waters the vessel had been operating, and from the United States, which is quietly organizing a multinational effort to protect shipping in the Persian Gulf.

If this were a boxing match, you’d say that the United States is trying to let Iran punch itself out. The United States hasn’t retaliated for several tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz over the past two months, or the shoot-down of its surveillance drone, or other provocations. The U.S. military lets Iran keep throwing jabs — while readying a knockout blow if it’s ever needed.

“It’s an international problem, it’s not a United States problem,” said Gen. Frank McKenzie, the head of U.S. Central Command, in an interview early Tuesday as he traveled  here. He said that any escorting of tankers through the strait should be done by countries that depend on oil from the gulf, with the United States providing reconnaissance and other special tools to enhance what he called “maritime domain awareness.”

McKenzie’s low-key comments, which came after the first news reports had surfaced about Saturday’s disappearance of the tiny tanker Riah into the waters off Iran’s heavily fortified Qeshm Island, seemed to illustrate the broader U.S. strategy of avoiding a direct faceoff with Iran, if possible. The United States has been bolstering its already vast arsenal in the gulf but, thus far, hasn’t used it visibly.

“Our ability to bring forces into the theater has acted to deter” the Iranians from broader actions, McKenzie argued. “We’re in a period right now where they’re sort of recalculating and trying to gauge our intent and our commitment.” The U.S. goal, it seems, is well-armed patience — not responding to provocations but waiting to see what the Iranians do.

This measured U.S. response may be the most notable, if least discussed, aspect of the confrontation with Iran. U.S. planners reckon that time is on their side; Iran gets weaker with every additional month of economic sanctions. Tehran wants to break out of this straitjacket, but lacking diplomatic channels with the United States, it’s choosing to send
messages through kinetic force. Yet Iranian leaders know they need to be careful.

Caution is also increasingly evident among gulf Arab nations, such as the UAE, that had been prodding the Trump administration toward confrontation with Iran. Emirati leaders know that a U.S.-led coalition would prevail eventually in a military conflict — but that the gleaming buildings that crowd the 21st-century wonderland of Abu Dhabi and Dubai would be early targets. These jewels of the gulf could become splintered glass.

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