Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington:

Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. He is a weekly columnist for Bloomberg and The National (UAE) and is also a regular contributor to many other U.S. and Middle Eastern publications.

Mounting tensions between Washington and Tehran have recently reached a boiling point, leading many observers to wonder if key factions in each government are quietly hoping for a military confrontation, or if miscalculation, misperception, and miscommunication could lead to the unintentional ignition of a conflict that no one wants.

These frictions have been steadily mounting for several years, following the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal and the refusal of Iran’s senior-most leaders to discuss any additional non-nuclear concerns. Any hopes the deal would moderate Iran’s aggressive regional policies were dashed. Tensions intensified with the election of Donald J. Trump as U.S. president, who campaigned denouncing both Iran and the JCPOA. Shortly after Trump’s inauguration, his first national security advisor, retired General Michael Flynn, put Iran “on notice” that a new era of U.S. pressure and skepticism was at hand. That culminated with the announcement of the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018 and the initiation of a campaign of “maximum pressure” against Tehran, mainly in the form of far-reaching new U.S. economic sanctions.

Gulf Arab countries were nervous about President Barack Obama’s nuclear negotiations with Iran, in large part because they did not attempt to address Iran’s regional conduct and hegemonic ambitions. However, these countries did not initially urge the United States to withdraw from the JCPOA, which they hoped would be used as leverage to change Iran’s regional policies. And, there is no evidence that any of the Gulf Arab governments have been promoting a military conflict between Washington and Tehran.

The Gulf Arab states appear to understand the limits of what Washington might be willing to do, unless attacked, regarding Iran. They seem fully aware that a U.S. invasion and occupation of Iran, akin to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, is not in the cards. They seem to realize that a series of inconclusive military engagements such as airstrikes or skirmishes could leave them worse off than they already are. And they apparently understand, perhaps better than some U.S. officials, that regime change cannot be imposed on a large and well-organized country from the outside, particularly through mere financial pressure and political machinations.

Therefore, what the Gulf Arab countries undoubtedly seek is what they in fact say they want: not regime change as such but rather a significant change to Iran’s regional and foreign policies, particularly an end to Iran’s meddling in the Arab world, destabilizing of neighboring Arab states through nonstate militias and sectarian armed groups, and efforts to export its revolutionary agenda to the region. And while they welcome a wide range of U.S. and other pressures on Iran to achieve that goal, they do not appear to be pressing Washington toward an all-out military conflict.

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