Fair Observer:

Ian McCredie is a former senior British foreign service official. Most recently, he was Head of Corporate Security for Shell International. He now focuses on helping companies navigate the complexities and manage the risk of frontier markets. He is a mathematics graduate and speaks Farsi, French and Danish.

I ended my last piece on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) master plan for the Middle East with the question, “What could possibly go wrong?” The answer is, everything.

There are four objectives in the master plan devised by MBS, UAE Crown Prince Muhammad bin Zayed (MBZ), Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and US President Donald Trump’s advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner. These are to contain Iran, to quash the Muslim Brotherhood, to consolidate MBS’ control in Saudi Arabia, and to force a permanent solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. All four are interlinked.

The first few steps have already been taken — the Qatar embargo, the subsequent capitulation of Hamas, a purge and shakedown of the Saudi aristocracy, and the decertification of the Iran nuclear deal. The next step was to destabilize Lebanon to provide a pretext for Israel to attack Hezbollah — a necessary move before any further action against Iran. This is why MBS forced Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri to resign and denounce both Iran and his Hezbollah partner in the power-sharing government.

This is the point the master plan is beginning to unravel. Hariri, now safely returned to Beirut, has rescinded his resignation. Hezbollah, as well as the Sunni and Christian communities in Lebanon, have refused to be manipulated by MBS and the Israelis. They may have religious differences, but they are Lebanese first and resent any outside interference, particularly from high-handed despots. None of this plan is the result of consultation with the populations of Saudi Arabia or the other quartet countries, or the Palestinians or the US — where even the State Department has only the haziest idea of what is going on...

Go to link