IranWire:

Among the US intelligentsia, there are those who oppose the idea of an independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan, and argue that the time is not right for Kurdish independence. Daniel Serwer, ex-diplomat and a Professor of the Practice of Conflict Management at John Hopkins University, is one of them. Serwer wrote an influential piece for the Washington Post to argue his opposition.

Professor Serwer’s past shares something with one of the Kurds’ best friends in the intelligentsia community, Peter Galbraith, to whom IranWire also spoke. Like Galbraith, Serwer served in the US diplomatic corps during the break-up of Yugoslavia. A career diplomat with the rank of minister-counselor from 1994 to 1996, he served as a special envoy to the Bosnian Federation. He sought to mediate between the Croats and Muslims and had a leading role in the peace talks in Dayton, Ohio that stamped the break-up of Yugoslavia. He also led the peace-building efforts of the federal United States Institute of Peace in Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan and the Balkans in his 12 years there as vice president, from 1998 to 2010.

Professor Serwer spoke to IranWire about the Kurdish referendum, which is to be held on September 25.

You’ve argued that the time is not right for holding a referendum for Kurdish independence. But proponents would say that they've waited for something like a century and the conditions will never be considered entirely perfect. What do you say to that?

My argument is that the time is bad for the US, since the referendum will give credence to Putin's irredentist behavior in Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. It is also a bad time for Europe, because of Catalonia and Scotland [both have strong independence movements, and Spain has banned Catalonia from holding a referendum, leading to large protests and the arrests of several Catalan officials]. The US and European countries get a vote when they decide to recognize or not an independent Iraqi Kurdistan. In my opinion, they will not until Erbil has reached an agreement with Baghdad, which is still lacking.

I would add that the time isn't particularly good for the Kurds either, since they lack the financial resources and political cohesion required to make a success of independence.

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