Ever since World War II, wars have not been kind to American presidents. The United States didn't achieve victory in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan, and the costs of these wars in human lives and dollars were staggering. They left bruises and tarnished legacies for the presidencies of Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, George W. Bush and Barack Obama.
We're not predicting that America and Iran are inexorably headed toward a major war, though Iran's shoot-down overnight of a U.S. drone underscores the growing risk of conflict between the countries.
Should war occur, President Trump will wish he had stayed out. Given that he defines the world in terms of his political rather than the national interest, he would be wise to consider the following.
There's no good end game
The Trump administration has conveyed no clear or realistic goals that would be served by the use of military force against Iran. Iran is too big and strong to be toppled, and there is no strong, united opposition capable of fomenting the kind of unrest that could overthrow the regime in the wake of U.S. military strikes.
If the regime did collapse, it would likely be followed either by a period of instability or a government that is even more militantly anti-American.
In response to more limited U.S. military attacks, Iran has many options available to raise the cost for the U.S. and its friends in the region — including in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan.
There is no reason to believe that Iran's supreme leader is prepared to suffer the humiliation of returning to negotiations and caving to U.S. demands, especially since it was the Trump administration that walked away from an agreement with which the Iranians were complying. And there is no evidence that President Trump is willing to offer Iran concessions to lure Tehran back to the table.
Furthermore, going to war without any clearly defined and attainable war aims is a recipe for an open-ended conflict almost certain to undermine U.S. interests and credibility.
Riled oil markets
Periods of Middle East tensions historically make for instability in oil markets. Hours after two tankers were disabled in the Gulf of Oman by what was almost certainly Iranian sabotage, oil prices spiked.
The last thing Trump needs as the 2020 election approaches is rising gas prices. But that's likely what he'll get should the U.S. and Iran find themselves in conflict.
Oil trades in a single market and regardless of increased U.S. production, disruptions in the supply of Persian Gulf oil will drive up prices. Iran has ample means — with anti-ship missiles, mines and torpedoes — to disrupt oil shipments. Even though the U.S. maintains overwhelming military preponderance in the region, it's an illusion to believe that restoring the uninterrupted flow of oil would be quick or easy in the face of a determined Iranian campaign to interdict shipping and to damage critical energy infrastructure in the Gulf.
Tangled up in another foreign war
President Trump has made getting out of unwinnable wars one of the hallmarks of his presidency. Trump's positions, from reducing the number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan to his great reluctance to deploy troops to Syria, show an awareness of the American public's aversion to new military adventures. Last February, he told CBS's Margaret Brennan that getting out of "endless wars" was one of his main messages and helped him defeat 17 Republicans for the nomination in 2016. And he has repeatedly expressed a desire to talk to the Iranians rather than to fight with them.
Unless it's short and decisive, a risky, uncertain and open-ended conflict with Iran won't help him much with his Democratic opponent, independents or his base. In fact, an unnamed White House official told the Washington Examiner that it would "absolutely alienate his base" if he were to involve America in new war.
America alone: Who will stand with the U.S.?
The U.S. has had military and diplomatic support for every major war it has conducted since the end of the Korean War in 1953. Even in the unpopular 2003 invasion of Iraq, the Bush administration cobbled together a small coalition of willing countries to join America in combat.
At best, should the U.S. go to war against Iran, it will be able to muster the diplomatic and perhaps military support of four countries: the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel. Otherwise, the rest of the world has been completely put off by the Trump administration's unilateralism, belligerent nationalism, its decision to leave the nuclear agreement without a compelling cause and actions that are clearly aimed at provoking a military confrontation with Iran. A war with Iran without significant international support, and perceived to be America's fault, would leave the U.S. isolated and bearing full responsibility. More than likely, this kind of unilateralism would hand Russia and China — and Iran — an enormous propaganda advantage and weaken U.S. leverage in the days after.
It is the day-after problem that looms large over America's experiences with the use of military force in Afghanistan, Iraq and even Syria. When a president is deciding whether to put Americans in harm's way, it's critical to ask not just can we, but should we, what will it cost and what's the exit strategy? We hope those are under consideration. Because of all the plausible military conflicts confronting America today, we cannot think of one that's more unnecessary, counterproductive and fraught with greater uncertainty and risk than stumbling or willfully heading into war with Iran.
First published by National Public Radio.
Aaron David Miller (@aarondmiller2), a distinguished fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a former State Department adviser and Middle East negotiator, is the author of The End of Greatness: Why America Can't Have (and Doesn't Want) Another Great President.
Richard Sokolsky, currently a nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, worked in the State Department for six different administrations and was a member of the secretary of state's Office of Policy Planning from 2005-2015.
Dont worry it will not be a WW3. It'll be all over in less than a week.
And it is only bad for terrorists in charge of iran who'll lose their power anmd money.
so relax.......
Trump is measured man aplomb!! He measures the length of the chomagh before he rams it up the regime's @$$ unlike Bush 43 who inserted it in Saddam's all the way!!!
Trump is not a warmonger. He hates wars so much that he did not even go to Vietnam!
Trump is much smarter than the regime malijacks around here can comprehend including our own sar Dabir!!! The objective of Trump is to deplete the regime out of cash, resources, and oxygen to the point of complete state of supine ready to be transferred to the morgue!
Reading some of the comments and hyperbole/excuses here, these commentators are well qualified to get a job at PressTV or equally Faux News.
Regarding the article itself, I disagree.
Historically, American Presidents in trouble domestically have caused military action abroad or worse war to distract the country from their trouble at home and this charlatan is not any different, perhaps only worse. We also need to remind ourselves that war is good for the war industry and they have not had a major new opportunity (i.e. war) for 15 years now.
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
‘I alone can break it’
Embrace BDS movement and Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
Oh.. Iraj khan what a coincident. I was reading this article on the link you posted on the other site and suddenly I saw you posted here too. I really don't understand why you are persistant these stinky, unshaven rag heads stay in power in Iran ? Criminal mullahs have ocean of blood between themselves and Iranian people. Don't waste your time, you won't get anywhere. MULLAHS HAVE GOT TO GO. Sooner is better because it ends suffering of our people sooner.
GOAL : RESTORING MONARCHY
اباما کجایی که یادت بخیر!
ترامپ هیچ غلطی نمی نونه بکنه. اگه اباما الان رییس جمهور بود قوطی رنگ قرمز دستش می گرفت و تمام ایران روهم مثل سوریه خط خطی میکرد.
Obama was sympathetic toward ruling criminal mullahs in Iran because Mullahs let the black hostages free and kept the white hostages in captivity in 1979. Race is number one factor in America. I am surprise none of the Iranians ever talk about it.
Obama was one time mistake for American people, but N.I.A..C people are so stupid to understand that because they think U.S policy is equal to Obama's policy. White peoole are the owner of America, NOT blacks or Mexicans. Thomas jefferson, George Washington...etc. were the founder of America and they were all Whtie Protestan Angelo Saxon jokingly they're called WASP. They were the foiunder of "Modern World". The only way U.S return to Obama's era in 2015 relates to the fact that another black president takes the office. Blacks hate White people, therefore, Only black president will be friendly with criminal mullahs. That's all. There is NO black candidate for 2020, so no way the time of Obama's era gets repeated again. No way cash delivery in Mehrabad airport if the new president will be white, no cash delievery to criminal mullahs, it doesn't matter Republican or Democrat, it is American policy, not Republican or Democrat policy, but Idiots in N.I.A.C still don't get it. They're still wishing U.S goes back to 2015 deal.
Democrats have become an anti-American party.
Siavash- Iraj Khan will be soon arrested and sent to GITMO to to get the Pepsi bottle treatment just like when was a youth during the SAVAK era!!!
If Iran tensions flare, Israel may strike while the world quietly watches
Iran shot down a U.S. drone on June 19, further escalating tensions between Iran and its adversaries.
Relations with Iran have been worsening for months. In early May, one year after the United States withdrew from the nuclear dealnegotiated in 2015 between Iran, the U.S., the European Union and five other countries, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that his country may also withdraw from the agreement, which limits its ability to develop nuclear weapons in exchange for lifting sanctions.
In June, Rouhani announced that Iran will restart uranium enrichment, which could put the country on track to develop a nuclear weapon within a year. Rouhani’s government insists its uranium will go to civilian nuclear power, not weapons.
https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/if-iran-tensions-flare-israel-may-strike-while-the-world-quietly-watches-119062300146_1.html
Donald Trump says military action against Iran still 'on the table'
President Donald Trump said Saturday he's still considering military action against Iran after it downed an unmanned US military aircraft, saying the use of force is "always on the table until we get this solved." The president said he aborted a military strike set for Thursday after learning 150 people would be killed. "I don't want to kill 150 Iranians. I don't want to kill 150 of anything or anybody unless it's absolutely necessary," he told reporters as he left the White House for a weekend at the Camp David presidential retreat.
Trump said "we very much appreciate" a decision by Iran's Revolutionary Guard not to shoot down a US spy plane carrying more than 30 people. He said the downing of the US drone was "probably intentional" contradicting what he said Thursday. The president's comments came as Iran summoned the United Arab Emirates' top envoy to Tehran to protest the neighboring Arab nation's decision to allow the US to use a base there to launch the drone that Iran says entered its airspace, state media reported Saturday.
https://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/donald-trump-says-military-action-against-iran-still-on-the-table/story/358309.html
Amid tough talk, Trump says he could be Iran’s ‘best friend’
AP
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump said Saturday that military action against Iran was still an option for its downing of an unmanned U.S. military aircraft, but amid heightened tensions he dangled the prospect of eventually becoming an unlikely “best friend” of America’s longtime Middle Eastern adversary.
Trump also said “we very much appreciate” that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard chose not to target a U.S. spy plane carrying more than 30 people.
The president’s softer tone Saturday marked a stark contrast to the anti-Iran rhetoric he employed throughout the presidential campaign and presidency, including his use of punishing economic sanctions in an attempt to pressure Iran to give up its quest to build nuclear weapons.
https://www.apnews.com/b3001dc1cf6a4da59ab55ca759664068
In Israel, Bolton warns Iran not to mistake US ‘prudence’ for ‘weakness
Iran should not misinterpret US President Donald Trump’s decision not to retaliate over the shooting down of an American drone last week as weakness, US National Security Adviser John Bolton said Sunday in Jerusalem.
“Neither Iran nor any other hostile actor should mistake US prudence and discretion for weakness. No one has granted them a hunting license in the Middle East,” he said before a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-israel-bolton-warns-iran-not-to-mistake-us-prudence-for-weakness/
I bet all the 5 individuals who have given this article thumbs up haven’t even read it, otherwise, they wouldn’t have done so. Or maybe they read it, but could not understand a word of it.