Trump Administration’s stated policy towards the IR Regime in Iran is twofold; First, “behavior change” through the deployment of harsh sanctions and second, “regime change” by the Iranian people affected by the painful economic results of such sanctions. But, what are the chances of success for this strategy in the foreseeable future?
The harsh sanctions which have reduced the oil revenues and have cut off the IR Regime’s access to the international banking system will be effective in reducing the Regime’s financial assistance to its armed proxies in the region and will force the Regime to prioritize where it will spend its resources. A similar outcome happened when oil prices dropped significantly during Obama’s sanctions which forced the Regime to cut its aids to Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua.
In Syria where the Assad Regime is back in power and the Russians have the final word, we will most likely see a lower level of activities by the Regime. The same will probably be true in Lebanon where Hezbollah is fully integrated into the political system. However, the proxy war in Yemen against the Saudis will most likely intensify and the strategic look towards the control of Bab-el-Mandeb will heighten the military activities. Iraq will also continue to remain in the Regime’s orbit.
On the domestic front though, it is hard to see how the hard economic conditions will bring the urban middle class onto the streets and keep them there. If we look back at the past forty some years, the only times that the Iranians have come out in great numbers and protested have been during the good economic times or when there has been a perception of change for the better. One can cite the following examples; The street protests during the final days of the late Shah and the early days of Khomeini, the protests in the Khatami era when people were under the impression that the Regime was reformable, and the Green Movement of 2009 when a barrel of oil was over $100 and Mousavi and Karroubi were seen as the agents for change.
So how are the Iranian people, especially the women, the youth, and the urban middle class showing their disdain for the Regime?
Masih Alinejad and Sasy Mankan.
Iranians are engaged in civil disobedience against the Regime in thousands by embracing Masih Alinejad’s “My Stealthy Freedom” and the “White Wednesdays” by removing their hejab in public and resisting the morality police. And they are willing to pay the price too. Also Sasy Mankan has managed to reach deep into the Iranian society from Southern California with his latest tune “Gentleman” and has given them the tools to defy the Regime.
Throughout the history, the Iranian people have hardly ever on their own revolted against their oppressors or occupiers, be it the Moghols, the Arabs or some king or sultan. Instead, they’ve rejected them by sticking to our culture, literature, hospitality, food, and song and dance!
آقامون جنتلمنه، جنتلمنه
این خانوم هم عشق منه، عشق منه
God forbid mullahs outlive Trump... Just imagine the degree of repression IRI would render upon people inside... Just imagine the magnitude of its global menace, then... Call me whatever you wish when I say, "removal of the Iranian theocratic dictatorship by any possible means is justifiably the only option for the well-being of every breathing soul in this world"...
Wallbanger,
Let me assure you that everything and everyone will outlive Trump. He is just an aberration, a one-night stand, a youthful indiscretion, a trip to the dentist, one of those, “what the hell I was thinking!”
Sun will shine tomorrow and we will go about our business. But we need to change this regime. We need to help our people.
Iranians, at least in the recent history have also proven when they are faced with military threats by outsiders, they circle their weapon and set their differences aside, defending their land.
A regime change will benefit Iranians, ONLY when it is removed and selected a new regime by Iranians. A poppet will never serve Iran or Iranians.
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Embrace BDS movement and Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
Trump may be a crook but changes during his reign, or for that matter forces that brought him to power, are neither a fad nor accidental. Illiberal democracy, as Viktor Orban calls it is the emerging norm. Iran's 'passive' resistance to invaders has always made Iranians a bit more docile and a bit more improvising to endure submission. So suggesting ongoing cultural resistence is actually productive, or will drive any material change is just wishful thinking it has been for 4 decades. The Iranian culture today is but a shadow of a semi-normal past, but if that seems good and acceptable, or resembels a path to ultimate vistory, then we are not looking at the same evidence or country.
I would not look at Hungry, Poland, Brazil or the Philippines as the norm. These countries do not have a long democratic history and racial tendencies are very strong there. Nevertheless, the liberal democracy is going through a challenging period as it did prior to the rise of fascism.
My blog is not suggesting that the civil disobedience (Dahan Kaji) by the Iranians will be productive. I am just reporting that it is what they are engaging in right now. I have not heard from a single respectable Regime opposition inside Iran asking Trump to sanction them so that they can come out and do a regime change. Neither they have asked to be bombed in order to be rescued.
And the racial tendencies is U.S. are not strong? Trump was as much a reaction to Obama's color as his policies. The global reaction aka populist movements are not borne out of conspiracy or pure racial motivations. People's lives have been negatively impacted by endless immigration and 'globalization' that has always been corporate driven culminating in crowd of super rich get togethers in WEF and similar forums to tell the world how to solve problems that they create and keep perpetuating.
Despite the appearances liberal democracy has been on life support for a long time, and is all but dead thanks to supremacy of corporate interest.
I do not think anyone wants foreign interference but let's be careful about how we understand and define foreign. The rapist regime in Iran is more dangerous and foreign to Iran and its culture than any invading army has been since the original invasion by Islam. As for war the IRI's "nafas keshi" has been surprised by an American president and merging interests that is calling their 40 year old bluff; regardless of Trump's character and motivations.
I am not at all impressed by the "Stable Genius", especially when it comes to foreign affairs and dealing with the dictators. He may be a genius in the stable around 4-legged creatures, but not much more than that. We'll see.