It’s been more than a week since the Secretary of State Pompeo got in front of many enthusiastic Iranians in LA and delivered a much anticipated speech about the IR Regime. Almost every Iranian site/TV/radio/newspaper outside of Iran covered the event and there were no shortage of opinions. Here are the two main reactions to what Pompeo said.
The pro-Reza Pahlavi monarchists who expected that the speech would mark a countdown to a regime-change by the US were not too pleased that the regime-change was barely mentioned and the responsibility was placed squarely on the Iranians inside Iran. But to keep things positive, they changed the countdown to November 4th when the oil and banking sanctions will go into the high gear.
The other anti-Regime folks were either disappointed because of the lack of specifics, or those who wanted to hear tough talk, war and the disintegration of Iran so that they could oppose Trump, were also disappointed that Pompeo was very gentle in his speech. But they nevertheless oppose the sanctions and don’t believe that the sanctioned Iranians will come to the streets and topple the Regime the way Pompeo wants them.
So what exactly are these sanctions supposed to achieve; Regime change or Regime behavior change in the Region? Let’s see.
If the objective is a regime change and the strategy is sanctions and the heavy lifting is done by the Iranians, then there are several obvious flaws here. A regime change has at least 2 components, toppling the Regime and replacing it with the alternative. Currently, there are no visible alternatives inside or outside of Iran. Reza Pahlavi is maintaining his distance from Trump and is not going in and out of the White House/Pentagon/Langley as Chalabi did back in 2002-3. Maryam Rajavi is not even allowed in the US despite her generosity in the annual Paris gatherings with 4,000 rent-a-crowd.
The toppling of the Regime component requires that the people come to the streets, stay on the streets, endure the Regime’s violence, part of the armed forces joining the people and occupy critical buildings and facilities. At this point, we don’t have any indication that there’s a high likelihood that these events can take place. But things can change in the future.
But changing the Regime’s behavior in the Region seems to be more aligned with the statements and the actions of Mattis, Trump, Putin, BiBi and Bin Salman. Mattis stated again this week that there are no military options on the table. Trump is advocating an Arab NATO (al-NATO!) to stand up to the Regime. Putin is encouraging Sepah to leave Syria and in return be a partner in an oil/gas pipeline from Iran to Europe through Iraq and Syria. (If you buy this, I will sell you a nuclear plant in Bushehr!) BiBi has also met with Putin several times and seems to be onboard, and so is Bin -Salman. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a neocon think-tank aligned with BiBi has been advocating the crippling sanctions strategy for several years now and they seem to have convinced Pompeo.
What we have learned so far is that Trump is not a strategic person. He likes to make decisions quickly and see the results fast. A tight sanctions policy with the Europeans and the Asian partly or fully onboard can significantly reduce the Regime’s oil revenues in short time. That will dramatically cut the Regime’s cash assistance to Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. We saw the similar scenario when the Obama sanctions went into effect and the price of oil dropped to about $40/barrel. All of a sudden there were no assistance to Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua and Cuba.
So the regime change goes on hold until the Iranians figure out what they want to do. The Iranian economy gets worse and worse. Sepah will dispatch its Reza Zarrab and Babak Zanjanis to sell smuggled oil on the open markets, and the Europeans and the Asians will wait and see what will happen to the US domestic elections and events.
I don't like Trump, and I don't like the IR. That being said, for 40 years, while little shit countries like Dubai and Qatar, and not so little countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey became business hubs and world players, our homeland regressed more and more into a revolutionary shithole whose major export became homemade rockets to Hamas. Death, war, destruction, sanctions, drought, environmental destruction, oppression, and isolation have been a constant feature of Iran since the IR came to power. Regardless of who the U.S. president has been for the past four decades, everything that has happened to Iran has been because of the IR.
Iranians are not alone. The mass media in the West call Trump’s administration the war cabinet.
You see AO, many Iranians still see their roles and contributions as reporters of the IR Regime's crimes, corruptions and misdeeds 7x24. Enough of that. We need to talk about solutions, plans and ways to unite the 80 million Iranians to get rid of this regime.
Saying how bad the Regime is 7x24 and then say that Trump is going to solve our problems for us will keep us in the same spot for another 40 years.
Faramarz,
You have made several good observations. However, I disagree there is no replacement. While there is no organized or even disorganized opposition, if U.S. was going to fix Iran as neocon's on this site (or a Neocon with multiple names and personalities:) promote, the replacement can be a technocratic system and for that we have plenty of people and talent including many that work for the current regime that are regular people who could not get out of Iran. Uniting 80 Iranians is not a requirement given how it'll come about (not by a vote), Reza P. is the only person that can lead such government and to that extent his statements on being a shahrvand make sense, despite shahollahis, and those who hated Pahlavi's by Pavlovian training.
AO jaan, UAE's rise was not coincidental to demise of Iran and literally simultaneous, and started with QE's trip to baren land as a signal to all: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKohfyc0I6w
We've all had it with the slimic republic but absent at least a semi-clear solution, I'm afraid we'll be missing these slimeballs, once we see the next cluster. Just take a look at what Bush Jr. and Paul Bremer did. And as bad as that was Bush jr. and Bremer were the smart version of Trump and Bolton. Plus, IR military coupled with Russian and Chinese backing won't be the pushover Iraq was and lazy ass SA soldiers won't make any material difference. If Israel gets involved, suddenly Turkey and others may join Iran. It's a can of worms. However, I feel every bit of your pain with these 'madar be Khata's'
And now...Trump wants to meet with Iran!!
Since this administration is more interested in the appearance of making change than the actual change, it is doubtful any meaningful improvements will take place. However, since assbackward countries can flip overnight, it is hopeful that RP2 may very well be the common cause although judjing by the single mutli-ID poster sentiments, UNITED is a word foriegn to Iroonies of all colors and persuations.